a 10% rise in petrol prices reduces petrol demand by 3% in the short-term, and by 6-8% in the long-term. (Although the study isn’t clear on this point, I’m guessing short term is <1 year, and long term is >1 year.) …”

ummmmm

try that short term number
for a price double from 40 per b

to 80 perb

and you expect within a year 30% volume reduction

its amazing this is the level of public discussion
when the top five energy companies

made 500 billion dollars in profits

since the court appointed those two oil scags to the two top white house jobs

imagine what those off

the public books limited partnerships

that own a huge chunk of the wells of america made

price up 100%
quantity down 30%

have we seen anything like that since 04 ???

Posted by: paine | Link to comment | June 09, 2008 at 04:59 PM

paine says…
sam

greens are not for oil conservation
thru administered

huge wind fall profits are they ????

for god's sake
tax the domestic wind fall away

pigou the pump price

but take solice in the high prices

you're funding
the green house monster

Posted by: paine | Link to comment | June 09, 2008 at 05:04 PM

paine says…
“The problem of course is that such complex-math systems, while remarkably facile, also stray so far from 'the intuitive' that they're just outside of the range of gregarious intellectual discourse “

really ???

i'll agree
turning a weak comprehension

into gibberish does fall outside the GID zone

for sure for sure

Posted by: paine | Link to comment | June 09, 2008 at 05:10 PM

paine says…
year zero start driving less

years zero through plus 8

a series of better mileage vehicle buys

grand theft auto ends in year plus nine
as fleet gets a fairly full recycle

then the oil price collapses again ….

“there's a problem with taxing the profit out of the domestic refined petroleum products market”

who needs to do that
hit the domestic well heads with a wp tax

“to specifically tax them is just about the antithesis of open market capitalism “

exactly

full speed ahead high pigou prices
zero wind falls

anon is just informed and reasonable enough
to be a big oil flack

a righteous metaphor
trumps a partial truth

every time

Posted by: paine | Link to comment | June 09, 2008 at 06:35 PM

paine says…
” in Hungary the average price per gallon is about $7.50 “

but that's got tax not just wind fall profit in it

we need to keep an eye on two balls here

price and profit

i'm all for high as hell prices green vs brown
knock yourself out

but tax oughta be the whole of it
above replace ment cost

not rent

Posted by: paine | Link to comment | June 09, 2008 at 06:44 PM

paine says…
talk about moral

hazard
let these engery corporations get away

with hundreds of billions in war profits

by this this oil region war's

price soar shit

and they'll keep it up
or do it again or both

perpetual war or near war in the gulf

its good for exxon
and what's good for exxon is good for america

Posted by js paine at 11:24 AM

paul k sez yes
racism is down

maybe america can handle

a coal black commander in chief

“Part of the credit surely goes to Bill Clinton,
who ended welfare as we knew it”

indeed i agree 100%
but he failed to

a cut payroll taxes back
even to steady state paygo

b emasculate the fed's job recession trigger

c embrace a balanced industrial square trade policy mix

d enshrine a wage maxing full employment target

e emblazen on our trade policy the optimal dollar forex objective of america's jobbled majority

on balance he failed ….us

and failed us badly

…
“Unfortunately, the campaign against misogyny hasn’t been equally successful. …”

spoken like a true campus egg head

why pit these social identity groups against each other to begin with
and what's more

try driving thru the various parts of night time

sub urban america

while young black and male

vs

young white and female

…
“By the way, it was during the heyday of the baby boom generation that crude racism became unacceptable. Mr. Obama, who has been dismissive of the boomers’ “psychodrama,” might want to give the generation that brought about this change, fought for civil rights and protested the Vietnam War a bit more credit.”

this goes beyond egg head pc smarmy foolishness
into the darker twilight

of offensive

“i got the bully pulpit “

merit class el correcto

hip nar-boomer

we generation

defensive self preening

…
“By the way, it was during the heyday of the baby boom generation that crude racism became unacceptable. Mr. Obama, who has been dismissive of the boomers’ “psychodrama,” might want to give the generation that brought about this change, fought for civil rights and protested the Vietnam War a bit more credit.”

this goes beyond egg head pc smarmy foolishness
into the darker twilight

of offensive

“i got the bully pulpit “

merit class el correcto

hip nar-boomer

we generation

defensive self preening

…
“the issues just get lost I guess”

what issues ???

elections are about rallying the loyals
and coning the neutrals

positions on issues never arise
as relevent to the contest

except in the mouth of an opposition

charicaturing an oopponents position

into a pig blatter to beat her/him with

on issues besides
i love my mom

your baby

and a good ice cream cone

going issues IS going negative

“the upcoming election will tell us a great deal about America “

really ??

or will it just tell us
how the electorate

chooses to flee

America's challenges

into a mirage of hope
or a barrage of bluster

“This displays your complete ignorance of sexism paine.”

fair enough i'm a white guy

” The danger is not from overly-protective suburban male police (another form of sexism perhaps?)”

i was thinking of the cops on offense not defense

” but from within our homes, our families and our co-workers… and people like you who should know better”

at least 35 years ago
i learned never to play off

one oppressed identity

against another

weigh their claims
award priority

as 100 % non oppressed
i never correct

any one's insensitivity

to anothers oppression

or for that matter

after all these years

laud anyone like me

for being sensitive

to anothers oppression

you might end this self licking
holier then thou

one up ery

before you waste too much more time

at it

———

if one wants a fair comparison

muskie in 72

was a front runner

odds on favorite

nearly amnnoited candidate

for dem-prez-nom

when he faultered both in new hampshire
and florida

he took quite a press pranging

then again

he had no come back

his “weeping” put him down not up in the granite state

i think if the st hill campaign hadn't played
the gal vs black game

ie

identity politics most foul

no one would have seen the inevitable traces of sexism

in the media coverage as

determinative

instead of the real fault

in the up front

clinton strategy

going for a early round knock out

(irony?)

and the weighing of primary vs caucus states

not to mention
chronic underestimation of the obama effort

as in e brain bug penn's

line

this obs mania

as a flash in the pan

…
ken's phrase hijacked

”..(S)He and the rethugs have succeeded by given large portions of the population a reason to vote against..”obama

for her identity plus
agin his

a one two punch

but i hardly blame her
she wanted to win

it was 40 years of dem politics that set

the identity charges

along the fault lines

and for obama to try to be both post identity and appealing as a black man ….

the curse falls on the party house
that gave each identity

its own seperate but equal

rooms to hatch in

as a friend of mine sez

the Democratic party
is the prison house of oppressed identities

well there's been an imtramural house fight

can't blame the repugs

the jack ass needs to stop playing stephen douglas
in the era of rainbows

and return to its new deal type

class pol

better half

anne
i don't read m dowd

but she seems to think the real hillary is the scorpion

not the cornucopia

lady bountiful is the “act ” the “fake”

all that tail curled in the air

ready to strike that to m

is the real deeper inside hillary

i say look at
the big dark strak staring marble eyes

when either in scorp or cornucorp mode

they look frantic

success success
that is her brimstone

and unlike her shame free domestic pard

she suffers on some set of shifting

but multipule levels

even as she strives

rising from the canvas or trying to mount the ring ropes

…
one very serious point of difference

unlike hill and bar

carter and kennedy were miles apart on policy
domestic and foreign

kennedy took a press beating too by the way

————-

“The racial attitudes of “younger” people are quite different from those of “older” people “

different indeed

—-pop soc hazard warning ——

just how much and how deeply
is this difference

is it a process we might call liberating ???

or
just mostly mollified mellowing

a sub concious settling down

to a serviceable repackaging ????

that's the question …right ???

gangsta is race masked anger
not race based anger

gangsta anger is shared generation x/y anger

a theatrical expression of resistence
to the systems imposed

close ended

set of corporately determined

“individual choices”

but itself
this form of expressed anger

—- like the hanging rope—-

gets sold by the corporations

…

anon

i think u may have missed my point some

but then again …..

one do need an opponent now and agin
don't one

glad to have been of service

but
maybe i make too easy game

for identity indignation

if it isn't clear
if you review what i wrote

that i suggest

no preference for race lib over gender lib

in fact quite the contrary

the black identity pol

is as wrong to say race-op trumps sex-op

btw
outside of prison

young black males

lack rape fear

does this help rebalance
your sense of my take ????

half the sky is a lot to dismiss

with a shut up

seriously
i don't mean to suggest “quietude”

of any kind

raise hell !!!

keep thundering on

the sound itself might echo you
to a further chamber

full

of additional social insights

…
“Surely I would have encountered women-haters “

as a gal ???

by analogy
to your lovely label

race mute

to describe

an endemic pale face amerikan condition

is there nor
a gender mute

us male amerikan condition ??

ahh
see the verboten

scales are coming out

of my mind's draw again

whereas they need

some falling away from my eyes

the key question solved in the booths of america
this fall

should be

can identity politics still trump
economic interest

but its not likely to turn out well
unless obama shifts gears

and goes on a job class wide offensive

against the corporate air pirate

“Doesn't knowing how we respond to opportunity and challenge, and to efforts to divert us from opportunity and challenge, tell us ever so much about ourselves?”

yes
but it tells us progs

what we fear we already know about

the votin white majority

of our fellow americans

while we ought to look at “our” party
mired in identity politics

and scream

its the class war stupid

…

how we respond to opportunity and challenge

where's the big party candidate that reps this

obama ???

unless the challenge is

vote for ob no matter how hard it is
it 'll help purge your racist soul

slogan for ob

in your heart you know its right
vote obama

…
“it's very hard to simultaneously

lust after and hate someone”

hey you got that dead wrong

a sure sign of deep trouble
in any soul

is just that combo

no matter the object /subject

…
“um… was MLK a boomer? was the Warren Court made up of boomers? can boomers like Krugman really claim civil rights as their achievement? I don't think so.”

bravo

the boomers gave us identity politics
not liberation politics

boomer best definition

merit class types born between 1946 and 1962

recall the song
now that we've found love …

well for all these
younger gen (boomer)

it was

“now that we've found lib

what are we gonna

doooooo with it “

…
“Sex and the City”

is gay men

innocently entertaining straight women

both
behind and in front of the camera

as is

and in drag

anne
i like to contrast nixon

the press produced public hu-man

to reagan

the press produced public hu- man

there was something
always there in both

that

they themselves couldn't change

regular people liked reagan
and wanted to approve of his actions

on a narrow plain
media people didn't like nixon

hillary has grow over the years
into a media nixon

the press can't wait
to pound on her

like

they couldn't wait to pound on him

in fact its really the clintons

that take the pounding

bill surely took it worse then hill
of course he acted worse too

far worse far far worse

in fact its really the clintons
not just st hill

both she and bill

take the pounding

bill surely took it worse then hill
recently

of course he acted worse too

far worse far far worse

Posted by js paine at 12:46 AM

the aging prat boy of neolib glib speak

brad the retainer

has a long post agin jobbler america
loss from trade 

” if their views are wrong( those who claim open borders harm

our jobbler class wage rates )

we are under an obligation

to try to convince them

that their views are wrong”

and here come dah right boy for dat ..eh??

” globalization is at most a bit player
in the rise in inequality within the United States

iffffff

First, the biggest benefits of globalization

for the world as a whole come from

bringing more minds up to speed

at the technology research frontier

and thus from faster global economic growth…”

this is a reference to our national role
in being this reseaerch fronteer

drawing foreign brains here to the core

of the earth's

the post industrial core

r and d and hi tech start up outfits

to produce exportable intellectual property

“…..something that is not a driver

of increasing inequality

in the world economy's post-industrial core

but instead an all-boats-lifting rising tide “

bold assertion …
to raise all boats in the core

by IT export increases

necessarily

is to raise all boats

at an equal rate

“Second, that the distributional impact of globalization
for the world as a whole is positive, not negative

it is poor people in China, India, Indonesia, and Mexico
who gain the most.”

 is he saying we the american wagery
gain more absolutely if 

thirdees gain more relatively ?????

“Third, that there is something wrong

with the Stolper-Samuelson intuition

that freeing up trade must create losers

and that trade can have big benefits

only if it creates big losers. “

notice he must mean
big losers 

in the long run

not real individual people

or parts of the lives of people

brad from his accounting room on olympus

has a spread sheet where

the total number of job people

viewed as homogenious

raw labor n

has a time subscript

but

people are countable

like interchangeable parts

that specifically

coming and growing and then declining and passing away

but in the aggregate

filling

their appointed time slots here on earth

like the hairs on a head

people in the algebraic sense
comp stat to comp stat

ya its an easy neolib gambit
to look from mountain top to mountain top

and ignore the desecent and reclimb in between

its dynamic losses
u smug prick

the claim is big comp stat gains

always produce big losers

along the way

as a system moves 

from comp stat to comp stat

now brad passes on the first two ifs
as well he might since they don't deal

with the direct impact of free trade

on a serious hunk of regular jobbled americans

to point three
adding a link to a trick of abra-ca-algebra past

“I have thought about this before:
http://www.j-bradford-delong.net/2008_pdf/20080530_stolper.

Let me summarize:”

“In the neoclassical Heckscher-Ohlin-Vanek framework,”

notice the show off addition of vanek

“…freeing up trade is good for owners
of “abundant” factors of production

in the trading country

and bad for owners of “scarce” factors “

yup that's
an h/o gauge model deduction all right

now comes his florish 

“The efficiency gains from trade
the increase in the size of the pie

goes roughly with the square

of the differences in factor proportions

between countries…”

“… the redistributive gains and losses

go roughly linearly with the differences

in factor productions…”

“Thus for freeing up trade
to be bad for the greater part

of the citizens in the country

two things must all be true:”

note the use of “all” where its a matter of both..
brad over eager to push home his point perhaps

“The bulk of the people

must have little “ownership” of the abundant factors

which reap the gains from freeing up trade

their income must depend overwhelmingly

on the returns to the “scarce” factors of production ”

“The differences in factor proportions
that generate the possibility of gains from trade

must be small

in order to make efficiency gains small

relative to redistributional shifts”

recall the pugsley assertion
eg's grow like the square of factor proportions

ie faster and faster 

and rs grows at a fixed rate

here comes the falling axe blows

“The argument as applied to the United States

cannot be

that differences in factor proportions are small:

differences in capital-labor ratios

across the U.S.

in China are on the order of 20-to-1 “

“So the argument must be
that the abundant factors of production

are things like capital, organization, and technology,

which have concentrated ownership.

The scarce factor of production is labor.

Hence free trade will be bad
for the majority of voters

because their incomes depend only on returns

to the “scarce” factor

and those returns will drop with free trade.

” This goes against the likelihood
that the trully scarce factors of production

tend to be, well, scarce.

and so not many potential voters

will own a lot of them.”

weasil enters hen coop
baring sharp teeth

made of hu caps 

“But in actual fact

to argue that the incomes

and living standards

of the bulk of Americans

depend on the real wages

of raw labor

and of raw labor alone

seems to me to be equally implausible.”

” A very large number of factors
give Americans a substantial stake

in the returns to

a degree of “ownership” of

the “scarce” factors”

here he is so hot to throw the sunday punch
he wildly by passes us

is he asserting
we the majority “own “

a portfolio of factors

or is he using factors here to mean

each hu cap itsa own unique factor

btw i think
scarce factors here refers to the factors

that are  relatively more abundent

in ”our ” country pre trade

then in the two combined conutries post trade

ie CTO

“First there is the government
which is the property of all

but which raises its money

by disproportionately taxing

the incomes of the “scarce” factors

(for that is, after all, where the money is).”

built in redistribution mechanisms
will take gains in income from gains in trade

and redeal em

with a method that counters the direction of gain

“Second, there are all the degree
of formal and informal cross-ownership institutions

like labor rent sharing, efficiency wages,

local monopolies, and other deviations

from perfect competition

that give all stakeholders

rather than formal equity owners alone

a share in the value of the capital,

the technology, and the organization “

breath taking

if not de facto communism
at least we have a de factor super sharing system

“we are all stakeholders in Wal-Mart,
if only through the pressure

its competition exerts

on other businesses' prices “

the invisible hand
of inter corporation

dog eat dog price comp

rides to the rescue

by wiping out trade rents ??

all rents …no
some other trade rents leak out to jobblers too

thru the far from perfect job markets

after that whirl wind demo
with the sudden voila ending

theres a quick jump

to a never mind anyway

because



“I suspect that we are, right now,

seeing the peak of anti-globalization

economic agitation in the United States.

The fall
in the real value of the dollar

against European currencies

and its coming real value fall

against Asian currencies

mean that export and import

competing sectors

are likely to be expanding

their employment rapidly

over the next several years”

see its going to reverse itself
now as we climb up toward

the higher comp stat peak

from the dynamic valley here called a peak

upside down peak

see we look back at the mountain we just descended
not the one we are about to climb

” It would be a pity
if a look back

deranged our policy going forward

especially if it is because trade

is perceived to be a problem

by politicians

even though it has ceased

to be perceived

as a problem by voters.”

a pity indeed

the model behind this chubby hustlers pitch
is pure trickster logic boxing

but very interesting

to be continued

“well worth reading”

that's mark on brads
white wash hog wash of gains from trade

boil it down
and brad is saying

the job class as

stakeholders in corporate america's

gains from trade win more out of their stake

in the impact on corporate america

of these overseas adventures

then they lose directly from their pay checks

thru competition with low wage

(even forex fiddled low wage ??)

imports

his toy model
uses algebra

to conveal its many

happy concusion forcing assumptions

if you know stopler
he creates a mega factor (he wants us to be calling in our heads CTO… capital technology and organization)

but is actually

the hero of a math stunt

then he shatters the second factor
labor into a zillion pieces

and shows the intuition the classic two factor model

produces doesn't translate

into this one big plus a zillion little factors

in media res:

right now we're to believe
our trans nats are exporting

intensely CTO products

to asia

and we are

receiving back a stream

of non intensely CTO factored products

back ground:

stopler sez the factor CTO
oughta gain when

a border opens for product trade

to a market economy

with a relatively less abundent CTO factor

such a border was asia
say

after the reagan dawn

in pre border opened asia
the zillion other factors (some how

unitized and priced )

were-still-are

in a higher ratio to asian CTO

blah blah
we're off to the races

the point is up stream
the shared stakeholding

of american jobholders

in these american CTO gains

thru rent leakage and public goods

ie
thru non comp features of the job markets

pay system

and the public distribution

of gub benes

provided in part by taxes

that burden in part CTO owners

Posted by: paine | Link to comment | June 09, 2008 at 11:40 AM

paine says…
to add a belt to his suspenders

brad

notices the yet to arrive

“real” exchange rate dive

of the dollar

against asian currencies

indeed that if it comes to be

at a fast and deep pace

will staunch our bleeding of jobs that pay good

thus ending

our present

morph time in america

a morph

to a post industrial utopia

Posted by pinky at 06:45 PM