extend the period ??
i'd say of course

now i'm saying that

right off the cuff 

—my favored offing place —-

but …..

god if sam the sham is pushing it

maybe a more prudent mind might

take another look

then the eureka

“Compared with the $152 billion price tag
on the economic stimulus program

earlier this year,

the cost is slight “

t'is the scrooge as pragmatist in him
if gub pols are gonna need to appear

caring and pain feeling enough

obviously something must be done

gesture wise

and this has “the virtue “

of being comparatively cheap

and pay roll tax based

…

“There was no money to pay for the 152 billion economic stimulus program, and there is no money to pay for an extra 13 weeks of unemployment insurance benefits”

black swan dear soul
of what are you speaking ???

this is a macro econ con blog

not a home economics blog

uncle sam has as much money
as his principals

(the people )

and their naughty agents want

there are variables constants

unknows and knows

u jay are a constant very well know ….zero
…

“The problem is that the unemployment figure being used is a jiggered (actual unemployment is at least 8%, probably 9%)”

i'm indulging a tic here folks

—in what must be

an attempt to rally the respectibles

to the cause of the peons —-

we progs rave about

the low balled unjobbed rate

why ??

its a stock measure

okay so the fed likes to gesture towards
a low level that might trigger wage acceleration

and one where you might get wage deceleration

okay

but this is about social conditions here i suspect
that the real trotal level of social misery is higher

then uncle wants us to know about

at least in numbers has its …one time value

but once said its a forever

good times as well as bad

forever

or at least until

we discover

the stock number itself

is getting

an occasional one way always

—-no off set—-

correcting fiddle diddle

hey ultimately
we either feel miserable ourselves or we don't

the national scale of our fellow enlistees
in the legion of misery

gets numbers assigned

understated numbers

maybe even a little more understated

in bad time then in good

but isn't it

the net change

in stock measures

that matter anyway

the rate of increase

the size of the net job loss

that is what oughta become actionable news

ie

changes in the size of the reserved army

from period to period

assuming the fiddle diddle is always there

then only goal post changes matter

so far as i know

and i'll gratefully stand corrected

the present measuring rules

used on unemployment etc

extend back at least a decade…. no ??

yes the drop out rate
seems to be

in a secularly robust mode

but do you doubt the validity

of that data stream now

more then say

during the glorious clinton dispensation ????

…
” until a recession is officially declared, subject to two consecutive quarters of downturn, I must agree — the time is not opportune”

the time is not opportune ???

laf if y were a pug
u'd be the sort

that awaits

the arrival of the morning papers

before admitting

u got knocked out last night

Posted by js paine at 01:41 AM

mark apparently i'm not as impressed with this piece
as you are

after reading it

i'm not enlightened

i feel shimmy jimmy -ed

“even a cursory glance at history reveals that mortgage defaults become highly correlated in downturns”

so far so good

“One cannot escape the feeling that many players understood what was going on but happily went along.”
okay but why

“Underpinning this whole process is a view that sophistication implies quality: a really complicated statistical model must be right. “

that's silly
sure the rubes might fall for the magic model scam

the total risk neutralizer

the perpetual motion machine of investment

profits for all

now and forever

but the inside “players” didn't and don't believe their own marketing claims

btw

is that what this ultra vague phrase amounts to

“the importance of management”

the old guard recalling the last crisis
and making

back room provisions for the next one

the explanation
of endogenous risk

strikes me as thin and arm waving

hiding behind the regress of
“he knows that i know that he knows

gets tedious “

and to conflate it with

the correlation change

created by panic …

come on

okay so timing the inevitable panic is impossible

so cutting the gordian knot for regs
means huge equity margins for players

and thus forever lower return rates

so what elsethe players go back to the old black magic
building even better risk detectors

ie

more p t barnum flim flams

while re corrupting the regulators

all this is big stuff
ready to reload and happen again

so we plebs coulda used a starker clearer

finger in the eye presentation

then this account provides

folks don't confuse the novel flim flam

for the age old back story reality

even if u keep your eyes on the dealer's hands
u won't see it happen

but

when it matters the most

the next card

will come out of a sleeve

or

off the bottom of the deck

…

moral

don't play

unless you're the dealer

————-
jack:

“Indeed, the current crisis
took everybody by surprise…”

Really? I remember reading quite a bit from a few economists (Paul Krugman, Dean Baker) that predicted the current crisis pretty accurately”

key word “pretty”

timing the turn
is okay fpr a private investor

with no comparative performance peers to worry about

timing is not for super high leveraged agents

of huge pools of equity

if they call it wrong by getting out ahead of it

into lower return lower geared placements

or say agressively shorting the boat race to soon

i mean only ahead of the real final tumble

by say

a few months

and

hey that could cost you your job

no one had the means to accurately time
this inevitable ponzi bust

not closely enough at any rate

not to less then say

a quarter

or to where

the futures markets end

it was all
guts

and

guess work

come gain
or

goof

u are an agent

playing other folks chips

so u keep at the plate

keep swinging

Posted by js paine at 01:24 AM

buying a house ???

how to factor in
the cost of shelter

in a general cost of living index

by current purchase price

or rental rate ??

the house
the durable product par excell

beyond the car tv pc bath tub

but you don't buy any of them
every cpi reporting period either

so ….
should all durables be figured

not at market purchase price

but at current lease rate ??

notice
absurdity looms and rather too quickly

if we move in either direction here

…
“All of you need to stop reading

opinion pieces on the CPI

and start reading actual academic research”

indeed look what fruit it bares…

” The purchase of a durable good like a home is not a consumption purchase”

pat s

i know you don't read my stuff cause of its format
but …..

the core rate is a proxy for unit wage costs

oft repeated proposition:

the ultimo purpose
of the fed's inflation watch

is to control

the rate of change in wages

and what prices can wage increases change ??

non commodity product prices

right ???

once the fed;s aim is absorbed
excluding commodity prices

asset prices

any other prices in fact

follows immediately

the cpi
is really an official index

primarily used

to adjust stuff

stuff like adjustable t rates

and social security payments

politics ???

hey what would you have it be ???
yes we could maybe change the politics

to …say …

your jobbled class politics

not the rentiers politics

we see reflected in fed index watching today

jesse:
“It is simply meant to say

that these prices are more highly variable.”

that's the superficial glib daily paper take

seasonal flux ???

food prices and energy prices aren't
just in seasonal flux right now

season in and season out
we got a gaggle of galloping risers on our hands

the underlying rate of inflation
or trend rate of inflation

is clearly higher

then core rate calcs indicate

the alledgedly fierce inflation fighing fed

holding to core rate as policy guide

despite this trend

shows us

the core index is indeed

all about

unit labor costs

as we can notice

wage rate increases are still

enemic

even as living costs rise



in other words fed controls

are all about wages

proxy??
the core rate

ie

price change in products

after crudely extracting

“the magnificent dynamics”

of various economic rent seeking

price hikes 

“induced ” or “sustained ”

by the combo of

inelastic real market demand

and spooky speculation

“there's more

in these portential price trends

than is dreamed of

in your economics alfred “

——-

about jesse:

“Your explanation @ 10:43 is the clearest and most correct of all the comments here, including the post itself.”

here's the nugget of truth in that claim:

” A change in the value of the home that is not accompanied by a change in rental rates does not change someone's Cost of Living ”

hold on to that tightly
and you oughta stay sane

thru most roller rides

jesse

you might not need to justify your take on
the cpi rate vs core rate

if you focus on my point

wage control is fed policy sine qua non

all else is eye wash
but if you are a retired pensioner

then for u

cpi indexed vs non indexed income streams

become sine qua non

and if the composition of the relevent index

shows the biggest adjustment due

that might make your mouth water

but if another index composition

would increase your due adjustment

why then a brutal injustice has been served unto u

” some argue as if
justice itself

oughta work like a magic spell “

again jesse:
“I swear, some of you wouldn't last a minute

if you actually had to set economic policy”

you're right at least in my case
i'd get hanged by a wall street lynch mob

ndd

your wit is so dry here
it blows right past me

are you underlining my sarcasm

or after a mis reading

independently rediscovering it

don

the fed has regs to control credit flow rates into various sectors

its micro managing but its necessary
if sectoral asset bubbles are to be pre empted

general rules and regs
created by congress

specifically enforced

by the fed

needless to add
this will require

a large

“independent “***

fed staff

with brains and …guts

btw ****
i don't mean independent of congress

i mean independent

of those organizations they are regulating

Posted by js paine at 09:03 PM

marty wants to do all them
mortgage fucked householders

a big favor

and he claims

the fed and the treasury can't so

why ????

default

enough defaultin'
could turn

the last six months of mostly

big boy liquidity panic 

into a real honest to mammon

big boy insolvency catastrophe :

key lineby marty :

“What is missing is action to prevent positive-equity mortgages from becoming negative-equity mortgages”

this is why made patent eh ???

the big boys want to prop lot values
up shot if they succeed

extend the period of

” relative lot price adjustment”

back 

to long run rent to own trend ratios

which prolly also means 

extend the period of stagnation

in house production

and first home ownership

by maintaining a larger then life

over hang of unsold resale housing

despite the doctor mavro to the rescue facade

this is about wealth saving
not about

restarting the job growth economy

and i don't mean

the wealth of 'umble houselot owners

but the wealth of the big hi fi ferris wheelers

the guys holdin the lot value based securities

or insuring em or …

ie

the party-counterparty labyrinth

of involuted paper trails

that lead to …. paper towers

the scare words
ten million pops or moms saying

“lets jist walk away hun”

little home owner
default on a grand scale

to wit :

“The federal government …
by providing low-interest loans

with full recourse ..

would allow any homeowner

to pay down a significant fraction

of his mortgage.”

get the gig ??

yup its a “full recourse” deal all right

” Homeowners would be in effect
giving up the potential to default

on their mortgage loans

in exchange for lower interest costs. “

translation
no recourse mortgage obligations would now be protected

by ” full recourse “

uncle single lender loans

pinning the poor bastards credit future

to maintaining service payments

on their debt ridden house lot

marty speaks for some very crafty bastards

Posted by js paine at 08:03 PM

how does jay do it ???

” .. there is a major flaw

that ken quickly used

in his non-sequitor….

you used the transitive property ….

By “low interest rates”

do you mean low risk premium spreads…

… your argument is based on

a biased sample with size N=2.”

his own petard:
“Patently absurd drivel”

comes in a logic tweeeezer variety too
good round here for seperating

the canary droppings

from the cage grit

Posted by: paine | Link to comment | May 07, 2008 at 11:03 AM

paine says…
palley is stuck in 1979

so am i

these are old bromides indeed
major method :

convert deducts into credits

i like
replacing the uncle tax ex

on mort service

with a real fisc ex on housing stamps

but i liked it back in 1979 too

was that too soon or is this too late

Posted by: paine | Link to comment | May 07, 2008 at 11:09 AM

paine says…
the cap gains razzle ???

is

repub populism

“share the ever enlarging

tax free

unearned income zone

with mr and mrs schmulligan “

to axe this
you'll need a two for one

“swing voter bene-sub “

Posted by: paine | Link to comment | May 07, 2008 at 11:13 AM

paine says…
The “cult of home ownership”

as fed gub policy

ken

goes back to the truman GI bill years

let me suggest this

the old politics pre pearl harbor
had its cult of the farmer

well
after “THE war “

and facing the huge occ share shift

from farm to burb …

great american prosperity

from growing golden wheat fields
to mowing 1/4 acre lawns

change without change

Posted by: paine | Link to comment | May 07, 2008 at 11:21 AM

paine says…
“I think we want to encourage home ownership in this society.”

why rp ???

“It just seems like a choice as to whether or not you want to send your money to the bank or to the government, and it appears as though most U.S. citizens prefer supporting our banking system.”

fabian forte
great passage

Posted by: paine | Link to comment | May 07, 2008 at 11:38 AM

paine says…
“Foreign workers will want to be paid back”

nice way to put this

indeed
it is the ” foreign ..”export”..workers “

as well as our domestic job losers

taking the short sheet

in the process

through
“the underpricing “

of their exported products

through the collusional forex gimmicks
which have bipartisan support of the winner groups

(foreign firms

plus

trans nats )

the globalizers are very lucky

both sides gubs are controled

by their two respective winner groups

Posted by: paine | Link to comment | May 07, 2008 at 11:50 AM

paine says…
“The idea of taxing mortgage interest payment and housing capital gains is just another scheme to shift the tax burden from the well off to the middle class”

you may
need a better chart of where the treasures and bodies are buried in the great american wells vs mids class struggle

my take on the location
of the front line spencer

don't lead to such diabolics

to be fair to tp
he presents a package

not just a naked deduction removal

and indeed

granting the uncertainty of any “net class burden effects given the plausible oddity

cross elastcities can produce

in an ultra complex web like our modern ownership economy

my guess remains —as it was in 1977—-

tp's proposed changes

—-taken as a package—-

if enacted and given time to settle in

ought to

shift tax burdens quite the opposite way

then you seem to imagine

that is an overall net shift
from mids to wells

not as you suggest

from wells to mids

tp
thanx for the simplifications of your position

the result

point one was never in doubt

point two
“the capital gains tax rules changed at the beginning of the bubble”

point three

“The important point is that the tax laws contributed to a culture/climate in which people believe they are stupid if they don't own…”

tie in ??? okay that induces a desire to own
not value max and isn't this cult of 60 year standing

more or less a social constant good times and bad

perhaps this irrational grail quest
faced with the expanding lot bubble triggered

a houseless wannabe first time buyer frenzy

to buy a house any house

while rates were uber low

and before even the cheapest lots

soar out of sight

” once the bubble is underway, the tax rules are like accelerant to it.”

its sensible to suggest

higher net proceeds of sales flying

thru the cap gain loop hole

allow higher new buy ambitions

—-and from the often missed extra equity side——

but an accelerant ????

if a forest becomes drier do to say climate change …
all fires big ones (bubbles)

and regular ones will be more serious from then on

its a changed condition

in this case the climate change (gub cult policy )

has come in stages over 60 years

and has made the “forest ” prone to fiercer fires

in this case the tax holes are conditions
that help explanation

why house lots are

going to be too high “always”

a cleare use of accelerant might be
the comparatively sudden originators

care free dropping of qualification standards

care free because of the brave new world
created by the securitization innovations (sic)

i happen to share all of your aims

vis a vis

the said house lot ownership cult

and its job class based benefiting

rectification

but you are indeed still
stringing up

your tin can to the tail gate here

the real bubble maker
is a tight little synurgy of private profit causes

and fed /treasury regulatory complicity and corruption

that's what gave us

the house lot bubble

here in the states

that's not really under serious debate

the relative shares in causation

of those factors may well be problematic

but the general course of rectification

is really not

and the killing of of the deduction scams
like the mort interest and house sale gain give aways

are game for another hunt

even as they remain
on going hideous features

of our shanty town of a tax scape

and even though

i agree the cult needs its head cut off

and thus these prominent totems of that cult

need removal

like err the farm subsidies need removal

hey parallel city

the cult of bio fuels
of recent inauguration

adds an additional umph

to the corn price bubble

Posted by js paine at 07:52 PM

” strengthening efforts to reduce inequality and insecurity”
by tax and transfer among ourselves ???

now if the job class can be polarized
and then the better off jobsters taxed to

net support the fallen ….

just

keep it all monoclassic

at least for as long and as far as possible

you know
keep the product and low skill borders open

for competitive cost of living purposes

and of course
as dean baker harps

keep the upper 10%

professional class households' income

border seal protected

yes always remember in the public discourse
try to keep the focus on

the total amount of any households income

not the source of the income

maxim
at all times

let the bottom twenty

the true losers

get prop-ed up by means of taxes largely

on the top twenty

the true winners

while stabilizing the middle sixty

blah blah

key
some how thru all this taxing and transering

pull of a sweden trick

keep expanding
the exotic non big corporate

tax free zoning areas

then we stateless elites

can still

off class our taxes

if we don't off shore our wealth …

its all about
the big ones

the top 1% ers

in fact even

only the top 1% of the 1% ers

really really matter

the rest of us
are helots

sons of adam

with his curse

not children of the angels

Posted by js paine at 09:34 PM

“Cross your fingers, knock on wood:
it’s possible,

though by no means certain,

that the worst

of the financial crisis is over”

i think paul k
here is “feeling”

this is not”the big one “

and …well

if he's honest with himself

he's prolly disappointed

he'd so much like
to join the torch lite process down to wall street

err

probably have to make that

candle lite in the final version

but at any rate

march into those glass towers and such 

and u know throw some serious regs

all around

those hi fi fundsmen

and assorted back up

coporate dare devils

swan-ing around down there

but alas a return to normalcy
puts a stop on all this

even amidst a lowering recession
even if we go further and further into

this sinking misery infested lot dump quick sand



slow motion tempo for a couple years ??

prolly

and earth round proportions ???

yup

never the less

cause the system held together

one more time more or less

the people's light and fireworks show
is canceled….till further notice

but

then again hope beats eternal
in the breast of paul k

”..there’s every reason to believe that the next crisis …”

like an early 50's brooklyn dodger fan
he cries at the wall street yankees

“wait until next year “

————

comments

blis:

“Krugman gets the analysis completely wrong, because he seems
to think that the current problems are new”

well once again blissex
its not paul but u u that are “..wrong” ..

 ”…completely wrong” ??
i don't know …. who can tell

at any rate

first
this as u point out

may indeed be

but an avatar of a built in

ageless credit market scam

performed once again

in the bermuda truangle

formed by

sunny day opacity

fools money

and king leverage

obviously paul's point
reg means of control must evolve

and evolve even as hi fi instruments evolve

ie not …with a post panic lag

besides
paul's

analysis of what went wrong

this time

needs little last time or any

past time knowledge

hell my sig-other
called this one right

and for said party

yesterday is what passes for history

shit last week is archeology

that to the side blis

your very intense
pounding of our paul

seems to be based on one notion

insurance is not banking

paul calls it needed banking regs
u say

insurance regs

—i personally like
to call it the FIRE HOUSE —-

but whatever ..so what

we all know what of we talk

( the thought crosses my mind
you may belong in a simpler world)

but your point about
the blatant market failure here

call it what u will

is  very very well taken

spot ON bro

btw
these ummm

spec on risk markets

as a failure of insurance to tie the boats together optimally if at all

short of a scam

is not missed by paul k

in the late late 70's

when paul got his initial brain soaked

by econ con

greek letter flap doddle

the insurance failure pardigm

had just barely missed 

eating  arrovian micro whole



……….

btw

blis

from comment to comment

now

you quote yourself ???

next you'll be refuting yourself

have you bliss boy
at long last

moved

that far ahead

of the rest of us

now you have to race around
and play

both sides of the net

just to feel challenged ??

———

“Please allow the market for risk to work by allowing failures to fail.

If not our collective goose is cooked “

seems there's always time for a late arrival from
that tyrole of the mind

where rules

baron hayekstein

these must be austrian ovens ???

its always purplexed me why things must always get bigger


why the fatalism

why the inevitable final knock out finish

and if there's a way to ameliorate the shock
then its only to insure next time the shock

will be bigger and the following one bigger still

with every postponement we bring on a greater final catastrophe

not always
true of mother nature

a flood season levy

or succesive siltings

raising the chaneled and walled in river bed

but the levy in either case

may hold long enough annd often enough

to remain better then

just let it run its wild and natural course eh ??

the hundred year flood cometh indeed it cometh
but not

by successive increases

and even if it did

we build the levy higher till what

the levy collapses of its own weight
in an off season ??



all this of course

adds color

and vigor to pure structural-parametric -dynamic conjecture

and

voila compared to greek letters paper and paste

a roasted myth tastes great eh ??

Posted by js paine at 08:20 PM

“ANY president will have to repair 8 years of severe damage to the very fabric of the Republic”

what in hell meaneth this mate

severe damage
to the very fabric of the republic ??

the patriot act

hey till white folks fear their own gub
no way this cuts ice

iraq??

both sides of the aisle will find a way
to the same end game

that one deemed best
for the limited liability

global project

ie

the imperial way

the mounting federal deficits ???

pure black widow spider horse feathers

the downed wires of 50's era
gub over business

control and regulation ??

bi partisan

in sum

that we are on the verge

of a grave choice next fall is

well

yet another “flood ” cry

time for pwogs to build another

noah's ark of conventional thinking

i for one am tired of 30 years
of post woodstock

comfortable but full of fellow “feeling” class

their hysterics their indignation
their moral world according to ME

its upshot
a stampede to back

a clinton or a gore or a kerry

or now

a hillbama

any one but an elephant eh ???
listen by the looks of it

either of the identity twins

that prevails

won't

be able to by a cup of dunkin's

on the diff

between them “in action” over the next 4 years

and the next 4 years

under the ole air pirate

peog ponders
you want a new deal type morph ???

sorry
not if the global economy

pulls out of this credit swoon

now if it dosn't ….

even flight deck pappy
will be closing the borders

—with secret corporate trap doors of course —-

Posted by js paine at 08:19 PM

“The domestic component of a strategy to promote healthy globalisation must rely on strengthening efforts to reduce inequality and insecurity”

larry on homeland front :
same old same old

strengthen job lose safety nets
issue more and better job compaction collision mats

produce more hu-cap

by ringing more school bells …

sum up
zillions of cubic meters of gaseous chatter

the international front ??

“the US should take the lead in promoting global co-operation in the international tax arena”

“prevent harmful regulatory competition”

larry brings forth ….a mixed bag

of common peas and magic beans

the result

more waiting
more jobsters waiting for godot

while being harped on

to eat their skill building spinach

larry u'll have to do better then this
telling the board room

“there's a job class out there in the north hemi

that ain't likely to buy the frayed line

' open borders raises all incomes '

so you trolls better fire up

the second wave of razzle dazzle “

which is ????

“we feel your pain
as much as you see our gain

we agree you're getting pipped

…… something must be done

and it means by all of us

responsible types

living here on earth

so we're meeting

yup reps from all us big timers' venues

meeting

in a quiet hamlet in the alps to …. “

winston smith's brother winslow :

accuses larry of world gubmint fantasy

“pushing us towards a one world government. ….”

come now win

larry
knows invisible rule thru credit markets

equals more power then any gub

even a global gub can grasp

but win
u get the trans nat inc mind set right though ???

“Internationalists
have no reason to be trusted

to look out for anyone's interest

but their own”

“As a first step, why doesn't China and Japan abandon their currency peg ?”

precisely

why ??

cause
the U.S. patriotic wing of

larry's flock of globe circling

” stateless elites “

are making both our national policy

and their zillions off this

trans pacific profit slurry

…
” it's because there is now a real groundswell of opinion against globalisation and in favour of higher tariffs. It's very clear from posts on this and other blogs that the Establishment fears this sort of public reaction like poison. Only that sort of scare can produce a response like Summers'”

exactly correct

and larry even states it boldly

stateless (careless) elites
each elite

indifferent to the fate

its own nation's job force

and he goes further

the “groundswell ” is based on
real jobster compaction

not ignorant urban myths

and a few scattered factual anecdotes

in the rapidly
post industrializing nations of the north hemi

the time has come for bigger …promises

bruce w :

“employment is going to shift to exports (at greatly reduced real prices)”

you lost me on this bruce

talking real terms of trade ???
i agree more or less

but looking at corporate earnings
export sector margins in dollars

oughta rise nicely

in fact

why not raise price as dollar falls ??

gaining market share over seas

may be only so much so fast

and specifically

not as fast as any particular

bilateral dollar drop

even if (dollar based )
relative prices

export to import move as expected

export sectors oughta pass thru real wage increases as well as higher employment levels

but that's the econ con in me…
more to the main point

“There is plenty of policy space to cram-up “

boy oh boy are u right

and i love your list of means “.. to make the top 2% and major corporations absorb a lot of the pain”

well worth repeating

Usury laws
Progressive taxation.

Wealth taxation

Public investment projects

Minimum wage increases

Repeal Taft-Hartley

Increased mandatory vacation

A tax-financed Health Care system

Posted by js paine at 08:13 PM