if the spot market
for something as pervasive and basic and
for most markets
foreign sourced
has as few producers of international signifigance as most commodities have
and if not a cartel to boot at least very few serious wholesalers

and if the price above some level
is nearly all profit
and there are fewer still
buyers/ refiners/middle processors
then we have policy pricing
not competitive pricing

a strategy not a contest

the pure specs
the futures market makers
are ultimately
thrall to the big corporate middle men
and the trick pony of spot pricing
---off spot contracting
is another kettle of fish of course ---

who dares gainsay this:

the big trans nat boys
can easily manipulate
the futures markets
in any commodity

the paradox
in times of unusually great profit opportunity
for middle players
most raw commodity markets
look more like the gold market in the 70's
then like themselves at most other times

yes cereal markets
have supply elasticity ...
next few seasonal cycles can see
supply increase greatly

but now !!!! rice immitates gold