House of Paine

the big scare

 worse then a crash is a near crash

  cause the survivors think
they've found
the elixir for perpetual prosperity 

  and the oh so jolly well  top most
       next summit
 is even a bit  higher
then the last pre drop summit
and the next fall...

well its  
a lot 
 deeper  
faster 
deadlier 
  and the waste land it leaves
  has  no legs 
  
      paint the planet  stagnation yellow  



=============================


me at the setser site


brad u write:
 
"the harsh light of a global correction " 

to me this phrase captures 
the herd of independent specs moment of dawning light  
 
putting 97 all over the mind set  
 
i hope no one  tries fighting
  that war this time  
 
cause  we all know
   its never the same war twice  ...right???
 

----------------
this will sound very crotchety 
but 
i'm more concerned about 
the obvious next act 
survival revival euphoria 
 
especially  
after this ..scare  
 
my guess( based on
alife long up close 
 study of   humankind)

 some of these advanced spectique types 
having sailed thru this storm 
may well decide to roar off again 
like they're 


"hey look it really does work ....
our system works guys ....wow !!!" 
 
 
i'll repeat i think we've seen a pre figuration here  
 
the gist:

 our gloriously contempo 
 global spec credit system 
underwriting
 all this leveraged hoodoo
        kept dealing the cards  
                fast enough  ...this time 
 
they won't ....next time


 and i think i really mean.... next time  

which is when ????

well hard to say less then a year or more then three 

it tends to be that way with these things

it requires a revival spell long enough 
to draw back in the spec pros
who can't afford to miss "so much up side "

----------------------------
 
and if one notices 
 
(as you  brad 
you salty dog you 
 make clear) 

in a run run run like this 
strong emergers finacial markets
can fall badly too  

the maxim kicks in

" the  raving panic self fulfilling
                    fools are in motion  now
so
why take the chance 
on  enough of em sticking on strong fundementals 

i'll get out now b4 em 
and get back in b4 em too  "
 
so no place ...south is safe  
 
and here's something beautiful 
the US dollar 
 becomes safe 
simply because 
  thats where the runners  all go

-------------------  
 
back in 97 
   its often pointed out 
 
the asians hardly looked shake and bake able 
at least nothing like the latins  
of a decade or so earlier 

the tigers 
 had strong trade positions  
 sound fiscal policy 
but but 
but they did not count on a spec hot money panic
at least not so big so swift so ....irrational 
they got caught 
with
not enough  ready  reserves 
to ride out the runs  

so this time 
they all have  strong asset positions 
that has been 
added to 
 good trade results  
and sound fiscality 
 
well what will they say after this time ??? 
 
"we shoulda known  
that would crash the EMW " 

hey the post civil war
us economy 
was a high flying emerger too
with all the features
 any emerger would die for 

and it crashed  hard
                      twice 
 
 rule of thumb

LOOKING AT A CYCLE  EARLIER IS LOOKING AT A DIFFERENT SYSTEM  
 
------------------------
not to play incantations
 over hard numbers 
     but after all 
this comes down to wizardry  here  

and mr wizard here predicts
 we're headed for a south asste crash 
and global stagnation 

not just 
' cause i feel it in the force '

also because...

some how  
episodically  
every damn time
since post colonial earth formed 
back there in the 60's 
the emerging market  hemi globe  
seems to find 
  the till then 'unseen'
       way to crash itself