May 12, 2006

mighty joe gets the heat lamp



this son of han dom

has a nice way of ignoring stuff

to preserve his sense of himself

 a nice trait if you can know its operating
and step away from the  proprietary carcas now and again 


=================================



joey boy:


I caught this  
too late and too far up stream 
to find a commment panel
response sensible

this is a very good post

so good i want to respond to it in detail
in this private personal e mail :


u write

"If one were to go back to the 1990's,
 and ask most neo-liberal economists 
what currency policy would best promote free-markets.... "

--- i'd  add after the words  'currency policy ..' 
                    this:
                '  for emerging economies'( EEs )
     it was only an imf approved
                recipe for them  third raters ---


" the answer would be some sort of peg to the US Dollar."
      ---  for EEs  agreed -----

" The presumption is that a fixed peg 
would enforce discipline on governments
 by insuring that they could not 
get out of bad economic decisions 
by playing with the value of the currency"

----------------- lets zero in here
its about government  " social welfare policy "
             over spending 8/10 -------

". You had people arguing tooth and nail
 for fixed pegged currencies,
 and where they caused major economic problems,
 the response was basically "they deserved it." 

 -----------  response by who  wall streeters ???------------

"What has changed? "

--------------- well those former EE peggers are mostly 
after some interval of chaos
 de facto pegers againl
so on that front nothing has changed----------
 
"What has changed is that the country 
that needs "strong fiscal medicine"
 now just happens to be 
the world's only hyperpower"

------------------------ aren't you conflating the us fisc with all north countries

the euro zone is hardly in fiscal free fall ...yet 
and if it is to get there it will be in part because of a  systemic north currency over valuation
the slavic east inside the ec
is running  south type currency scams
wage rates are one quarter the zone's big three wages --------

" and isn't some random third world nation
 and the "tough love" is going to
 personally adversely affect 
the economists that are making up the theories"

-------------- what ???
      the top 20% of north jobsters
are benefiting from the  global forex tilt 
   ie including economists
 if there's a motive here its an  altruistic attempt
 to save domestic  wage klass jobsters  pay rates -----
. 
 
"I don't find this objectionable 
from a moral point of view.
 It is a natural human tendency 
to adjust one's theories 
in the face of self-interest"

------------here's where you miss the players

the trans national corporations
 are on the side of
maintaining
  the tilt
here in europe even japan  
its self interst agasinst self interest
and its  all happening
 right here 
  inside the  freedom country itself ---


" and that is just a political reality 
 that one has to deal with."

 ---fair enough -----

 It may be "unfair" in some abstract sense, but life is unfair. 

----------- indeed ------------
 
"What I do find annoying 
is that people refusing to admit 
that this is what happened"


------------------ a  case of the old double standard eh ???

one for the other guy one for me

nope  wrong  i refer you to the various parties involved
and i state if the trans nats didn't like this set up
they'd change it 
the  prc has little to say about it
unless its in the self interest of the corporations 
it don't happen for long

that
 as you say
is
"political reality"-------------------



" and that the US's basic objection
 to the peg is that it hurts 
the US in this case,
 and the US wants to be able 
to run massive budget deficits forever "

------------ here is where the fabric gets twisted
 us is not a singular entity with a commen set of interests
right ?

sauy your part of the middle 60% of households
tell me how the  present global tilted
                            forex set up
has a long run win in it for u ???

as to  'deficits for ever '

that i doubt is the ...plan 

   thats  phase one

the part wherer america becomes 
 a profit tax free zone 
in phase n 
the boys will close the deficit
how ??
on  the backs of the jobsters....
thru  social spending/ tranfer system cuts
 and payroll /comsumption taxes hikes 
       thats the plan
and it'll happen
   if they ain't stopped
some where along the road to phase n
  by the ripped off  jobster majority 
as to whens n 
 recall the us is worth 50 or 60 trillion dollars 

which   gives em years and years of 
external borrowing
and as you say
  indeed
"'makes fixing the problem more difficult. " 
 
. 
 
"The other point is that I think
 you are focusing too much on ultimate endpoints
 and not on the path there"

----------- very acute point
the path is all we ever really experience
we never can get   ..."there "

the horizon bends out of sight
but we can say talk about the next twenty years
in say
five year chunks

and get a fair idea of what looks 
optimal for the next five any way

i have and  its got one clear out crop 

we need to pull off
a global
forex re alignment

a north south plaza accord -------------- .  
 
"No having a reserve is not going to protect
 you if you have bad fiscal policies,
 but setting up a system 
where you have a few days to figure 
what to do in the face of a run 
is not a small thing. Also", 


"one has to note that in 1997,
 most of the countries that the Asian flu killed
 weren't running bad fiscal policies"

-------- joe its you who needs to fathom 
the full implications of that fact

in short
the asian flu of 97 
was a clear
  N/S  tilt increasing adjustment
one of  an episodic series 
of such adjustments
running back  even
to  before nixon goosed the globe in 71 --------------. 
 
"Long term, markets tend to be rational,
 but there is quite a bit of short-term irrationality
 which you can safely ignore"

---------" ignore"  any asset market
          ..only at your risk my friend 

                long term
             it all looks like destiny
that's   ultimately
all there is
to  MARKET rationalist's   religion 

 whether or not
u see it as providential 
is a sectarian matter  -------------
Posted by pinky at May 12, 2006 04:38 AM