House of Paine

how much risk have they swallowed

  flying the risk broom

  my latest witchery do : 

problem with risk 
its 
more like a tiny very powerful bomb
then a hog

  when one of these 
       corporate pythons 
         swallow 
  too big a risk 
      you can't see inside em
   not like a  hog bulge anyway 

         all seems kool
  "yup we can carry it ...sure we can
     check out our profile 
               sleek  and smooth 
                       as a garden hose "
until the bomb goes off .....


  so step back

 and look at the globe  closed macro

what does it mean 
  that "the financial system"
   is carrying more risk 
 lots more risk then ever be4 

 well
       the lines  between cash and payment
         are getting longer more numerous 
more  interconnected
         more intricated 

64 k question:
 
   "so when there's a blow out 
some where along the byways 
thats particularly well located and timed 
is this  blow out
likely to do wider damage 
to the systems fine structure 
ie 
given this greater intrication 
is the  crap out after 
  going to be more destructive ?????

   the gut sez yes
             of course it does 

 its  a circular tale 

premise :
    if you make 
 more  of the whole ride
   on each  of its  moving parts
                
       successful functioning 
becomes more interdependent 

    ya ya risk  builded up
modeled like plate stress build up 


    the blows get raree by some exponent 
as the total risk brows larger 

say its a 3

then a  shared out risk structure 
twice as large is 8 times 
  less likely to blow 

so you build and build spread and spread pool and pool 
always making the blow less likely 
 till  what else
       the puppy blows
                  as  at leasst in this model it must 
                   and the blow is  errrr   "way huge "next installment

   what makes   a greater risk 
    not the flip side
     of a greater  opportunity  ....... 

                               total welfare wise  ???????