House of Paine

prc policy leap???

at the econ con 
 comment panels again


subject

can the han types slow fast enough 
their  export growth
 to stay a safe
  6 quarters  behind 
the   forward drifting  
 north club 
                protectionist ice   burg


=====================


its really not that complex on the outside


raise domestic demand reduce export demand


but can the system handle the switch fast enough
without causing an internal job growth drop


critical path 

how wide and doable

well i pretend to know more detail then i tell


  "  brad : 
 
been back there again 
 
three times in 4 months 
 
now at last they've had enough of me  
 
when i read this post i thought you were going to lower the boom 
 
but by the end it was drifting slowly back to same old same old 
 
one problem with the daily blog system 
the real pace of development  
shows  

 broadcasters used  to call  it
             god aweful vamping  
 
but  taking stock 
here 

let me say  
the gear shift over there 
   is  already well  under way 
 
and
take my word for it

most middle level guys agree with you 
 
its prolly too late  


the great han 
 north country  export wall approaches  
too  fast to avoid a serious impact

why?


cutting  ex growth now  
at full clip 
to a sustainable  rate  
prolly  takes 10 quarters 

the consensus median availible 
6 quaters maybe less 

so now its not whether but how bad 
 
both in norte america and euro europe 
there will be a re action 
so its now damage control

and ready the repair methods 

put it another way

unless the north club 
has a major expansion rate slow down 

that can slow the import  growth rate 

which of course causes macro problems
for the hans  itself  since they can't land this crate 
any faster without a job lack
idl;e  toilers pile up 

blah blah

as feed backs  and flow forwards
  loop into more nastiness...

oh u get the gist ...
  
but i doubt
a serious north country
recession
 can  squeeze itself
   in between now and then
 to shorten 
the present  longer but not long enough road 
to point  rubber bounce  

what am i saying

it will be hgalf assed 

and with proper diplomacy
 on both the han 
and trans nat sides

manageable 

----------------------------------
 but change in the 
  slow down  direction is coming


but 
that ain't sayin much 
since 
as you point out  
25% per annum ex growth 
with a base already so big  
looks godzilla like 
even from wall street 

Written by Gcs 

that said 

later
 i splash in further 


here goes...


--------------------------------
side bar 
we pick it up
where i clout
this fish head stephen roach 
like 
some  other  corporate  biz press pundits

 roach
loves to waggle his nickel platted  ass
    over this big economies in collision shit 
in this instance
meet and sup
with the  han  macro-cheeses 
swallow their chin chin blarney
and leave thinkin
      he sees right thru em ....

as in  


"  brad:

i read roach 
 
hard on me 
because he's to my mind 
    a mediocre gas bag 
 
MY TAKE HE SEZ NOTHING HERE  
 
FREED UP CREDIT MARKETS SEEKING THE INVISIBLE HAND 
 
.....SNARK ATTACK .... 
 
WARMED OVER IDIOTS  
DOGMA IN A DISH  
 
BANKERS SPECIAL  
 
btw 
 
he no more knows the inner mind of "Chairman Ma " 
then i know the inner mind of doctor phil  
 
this highest level chit chat shit 
under the flood lites  
really isn't very revealing  
 
its further down the policy pole  
 
say at the gut level  
where the 'umble  
poli wogs toil 
that l the tale gets told 
in better detail warts and bruises showing  
 
these han party econcon staffers 
and such  
the ones actually toiling away 
in the various old school  
word and number mills  
are sweating bullets  
right now 
 
its like watching  
engineers in a launch pad control room 
on a tv monitor 
during the moments before lift off  
only with the video tape running 
at one /1000 th normal speed  
 
 
this is a key stage 
 
a policy cataract  
 
but its proceeding at an agonizing pace  
 
now imagine some imp running  
at regular speed dashing around 
tempted to f.. with the controls  
 
thats how these guys feel  
when they think of the high mucks up on the bridge  
the guys like Ma  
 
who could cave to sudden pressures  
and set in motion a sequence of palliative 
bad moves  
that wrecks  
the long run of everything 

Written by Gcs 

after a pause i add ....


  "brad writes 
 
"China's unwillingness to change the market signals " 
 
but brad its not about signals  
or at least the signals hardly tell much about credit flows  
 
" a cheap currency and low interest rates " 
 
the inside system uses different avenues  
 
"that have encouraged export and investment led growth" 
 
no they only facilitate a plan decision 
 
 
" may make it hard to smoothly transition  
to another basis for growth" 
 
no such alibi in reality 
 
the market no more dictates most 
of what "new" that gets built  
then in the us war machine building economy of 1940-45 
 
in fact despite his windy delf inflation 
this one point roach makes  
in his own back assward way: 
 
system to system translationrequires noting the differences in mechanics  
the prc's investment credit system  
is not in any way rate driven  
either as to type  
location or volumne  
 
the micro allocations are in fact  
pure plan/admin "yesing and noing " 
 
hence the full feathered head-dress 
of big C plannner Ma  
not figurehead but razor sharp 
talking 
icon of the real system 
 
those too often 
irrascible central banker guys 
you've quoted  
here on occasion are but ..moneychangers  
 
think of it metaphorically 
 
a contest  
of peking planners vs shanghai bankers  
 
and the boys from peking  
are party favored and in any re deal 
end up with most of the aces  
 
we come from  
two still very very different systems  
 
 
the up side 
 
i think 
 
their system.... 


could ...could pull off this massive re direction 
 
 
will it ? 
 
 
my odds 2 to 1 
 
internally its like 50/50 
 
but then there's the outside worlds re action 
 
and thats 100% on the no go side 

Written by Gcs   "