House of Paine

ecce impotence

acheson brief:


check out the 17th century
                thirty year war
                      in central europe 


  for a fair analogy :

 think  todays arab lands 
     are  much like  those german lands
  fought over raped and rendered
                     fragmentary and feeble 
                        by  the great powers
                     of 17th century europe 



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sure drawing  parallels 
is a dangerous foolish  activity 
at best 
partial always  unstable 
as a guide to the long run or even whats next
far worse then just "miss leading "


but fuck it

there is a flash of light thrown

look quick at whats revealed 
and move on to the next analogy 
or contrast 

this i hold to be self evident 

today 
as in biblical times
   the  prsent arab lands 
are the target 
  of most  ambitious eyes 
stretching from the atlantic to iran 
     and in particular mesopotamia 
         (which  might be called
             the  very navel 
                of planet earth )
  all comers  want  in .....

      and
   as such
     no  great power 
is likely to  stand by
                  and see  all 
         or even the bulk of it
                   co opted 
                             by..." another "


but  tuck 
given the backwards ness ... 17th century germany 
was hardly that  
why is this not more like 
say
  a  new  indian sub continent 
where one power
will indeed eventually 
 sweep  all the marbles 
into one big  rip off  raj ????


simple


its  just too fuckin strategic as well as valuable 
to leave all that
       to some other power 
any other power 
                   in a world grown 
                             so far closer
              to itself 
                    in the last 250 years 

 a  whole world today as interlinked as 
                            the europe of 1620


but here's the key point

as with germany then
the arab lands now
  not only can  not  be 
" substantially  subsumed "
         by a single great power

 ---follow me here---

more pertinently 
they can never 
be allowed to unite themselves either 
 

the german parallel :

even after all the savage battling 
was ended
at westphalia 

germany was fated to wallow in geo political impotence 
from 
1648-1808

once sectarian zeal had cooled 
the whole sud world 
settled into
160 years 
    small beer  blood spills
      harmless thunderations 
   and ruritanian foolery 

till the french rev
and its mephisto dependage
     napolean set forces in motion that ...


at least 

let us hope the parallel 
   strays  off  course
       and the two  lines 
            of development start
to seriously cross
           and contradict each other

          very much sooner then that   ....