House of Paine

when to walk away

kulack wagery ( further adventures )
episode 11 

as kenny sings

"you gotta 
know when to hold em

know when to fold em

know when to walk away 
and 
      know when to run "

take an upside down mortgage 

 
grack  has invited us 
 to speculate with him 
about that looming 
  wage earners
 home ownership  catastophe 

=================================


 it all sets up 
according to gracks nite mare
as follows 


" Okay, say the market collapses
 Say house values fall by some 
improbably huge amount -- say two-thirds"


now unlike me
 who sez boo hoo
why wish this on the  wretched lubbers 

and in fact having 
already done so 
in  one of my   typcally glib
    loosey gossey  
         tea cup  tirades
  against some poor leftococus amhersticus  

i felt quite properly 
 called to account 

dead right he is too  

grack sees 
this outcome 
 thru its  silver lining  

he seez

  any " walk away
from a  white elephant"

as a  freer upper
and a proper klass tonic
to boot

only he sez it better 

he sez it like thiz

 "What's the net for 
Joe and Jane Wagearner? 
Some of them may lose
 some "equity" 
when they walk away from 
their overmortgaged white elephant
 -- but wasn't that 'equity'
 pretty much an illusion anyway?"

  and gang 
your Eveship 
 agrees:

 thats  surely  correct 
and as surely 
         its where 
 one branch away from ground zero
                       
-- the walk away branch--
                    would lead 

yup
' you gotta ....
         know when to walk away'

but lets look at another branch 

i contend  its a thicker branch 

what if foolishly
the dumbellz choose 
to try to  hold em ??? 


but first
some prep ....


---------------------------
 lot values :

now its  emphatically  true 

as grack implies

any  equity growth prospect
 that never happens 
was  
an illusion a pure illusion

and any actions 
motivated by that illusion
in the absense 
of divine (and benign )providene 
surely will come to a bad end 

so yes yes yes

grack is correcto

 
to over reach 
over pay and over jobble
in anticipation
of an ever  value rising
   path to the big 
       pay off salvation day 
 

well sucker .....

you is part of
one of amerika's mostest  
           greatest nastiest
            dick pull past times  


and  whats more 
forget 
just the bad  end
 to prospective rises
in a  burst a  roo 

in the  very possible
              universe  
todays equity may be  at or near 
     a secular peak 
not  to be re reached for twenty years or so  

now thats not  grack's universe
where the equity  is  gone 
 before next friday  

  which i'm sure he knows 
is  not systemically   possible
not with homes 

but gracks point is to imagine 
what would be

  if this wild state 
     of affairs could happen 

well lets see 

imagine if the house
and its lot
were seperately priced 

the lot price 
  
of any  family  homestead 
is 
pure scheinvert 
the stuff specs are made of ...

 at any time 
raw unbuilt lot values 
are the result of opportunity 
and they 
  can fall if opportunity dries up 
as far as the spot market will take them 

so the implicit value
 of the lot under your house
can do the same 

 now a house is a house is a ....
 if it costs x to build  
 such a house today 
 in the absence 
of a depression deflation jumbo 
it'll cost  right around x 
 to morrow next week next month ....  

but the lot  ahhh the lot 
if it were raw ...


well just ask robert morris 
when you meet him in hell
what can happen to  raw lot prices 

-------------------------

but to return to our wage kulacks

grack asks the question 

once "they walk away "

" Won't they end up paying less 
out of every precious monthly paycheck 
once the dust settles 
and prices (and rents)
 hit more reasonable levels? ..."


"And isn't that what matters? "

yes indeed 
if they walk away
they  will   pay less 
as newly minted  renters 
then  what they paid 
on their own house
at least in as much as rents either were already 
in a oddly low    ratio to prices 
(as they are now)
or if as makes sense they fell in tandem ...more or less 
but heres my point of insertion

as they contemplate 
 walking away

do it and 
 they're  now in deadsville 
           credit  wise  

kold turkey too

oh ya there's
also the branch 
    of those
  who whether they want to or not
    will be forced  out

but thats really not walkin
 thats  runin 

at any rate  
   if its default that happens 
one way or other  

 that's 
  liberating 
no doubt about it
ask pinky 'bout that


 and character building too

err
  for some anyway

( the  present pink profile
not withstanding )


in fact it
can get to be  
 a down right 
pilgrims progress 

 but what about the clingers 
the hold on
    for relief ers????

recall
 this radio plea  

" just don't  walk away
we can help u ....
       help u keep 
your  credit  number high ..."

theres  super good money 
to be made 
 keeping 
 yokels
  inside the credit system
  
and it works too


yup 

lots and lots of kulacks
will try waiting it out
and working thru it 
working and  
 waiting
 till the tide comes back in 

now in grack's 
 2/3 drop scenario 
 we can assume
 the equity was  less
then this 2/3's  
 for huge numbers 
of home owners 

we're talking millions 
of little  noah's
 immobilized 
     on tiny lawn  tops 
all over the country 


and  if  the vast bulk of em
  choose not to walk away  
 these worthy but screwed gumps
will be   still paying 
the same mortgage 
still gettin the angry wrench tightening
but now
with an asset worth less 
then its  mortgage 
no availibility on their credit lines 
and a future as dark as it once was bright 

with
their ability to borrow  gone
and 
their prospect of it returning 
anytime soon also gone
and their over stretched payments
 still ratcheting away at em

they have only one
alternative

jobble more 
some how



and all this 
just 
cause 
 they went for  one 
of those new super dupper 
principle payment  postponement
 set ups 

no one is coming to save them
 they're on their own  
 their obligation to service their debt
is in fact
a vicious 

"or else ...."

as in 
pay promptly
or else 
see
 the family   credit worthiness
destroyed

" sure we've  shut you off 
for now anyway 
but  remember bub
 if you default
we'll never turn u back on .... "

yes indeed 
 if before implosion day 
as grack sez 
 "a lot of these folks 
are stretching themselves very thin 
to make mortagage payments ...."

and yes 
they were  fools 
believing
their  wish 
for more and bettter
could be a reality
some day 
some where
 some how

and doubly foolish 
    since they 
      concluded 
      based on a dream
  they could safely 
" start living 
on a piece of our dreams  today "

 so sure as shootin
       they 
drove themselves  in over their heads

  with that frightful  
 brand 
of long range magical thinking 
only losers have 

as in staking all 
on the  
 "..sole basis "
of ever rising  house values 

 yes its hard to swallow
the  patent nonsense 

  once you know the secret

but these dupes 
lied to  not stupid 
had  no choice 
but to belive in  wishes
as a way to sleep at nite
 and still  
enjoy the partial  realization
 by borrowing on it
of the   
" ...
 prospect of future speculative gain"

-----------------

yes 

we kold calculators can see the frost 
means the snows are coming 
and for 
for ten  twenty percent 
of the wage heads out there 
even without gracks drastic scenario
its not lookin kool 

 the  lot price roof  
doesn't need to cave in 
  tomorrow 
for  a lot of folks
 to face 
what  my uncle 
the  compulsive sports gambler
       used to call  
   " gettin it at  both ends "

 and see my point now  
 my branch the many  many 
  honest  mulers out there
who 
won't walk away 
 and  yet will face  gracks 
 same last question 
  the one that runs at us 
thru  his (and mine too)
  prefered passage

the walk away
 default
and liberation 

either branch 
leads to answering this grack  question  

"Who reaps the benefit of that?"

and the grack answer
 
" Not the poor wagenik....." 

nope 

the master exploiter
thru 
    ever higher value added 
per scared frantic 
 hour
 of jobbling
and /or 
ever less then otherwise
           wages  paid 
 


------------------------

post toastee 

  
notice one  other branch 

 those out there
after the crash 
with  still virgin  
credit bodies 
those  movin  on up 
into 
 kulackary  
 
the imploded housing market 
is an opportunity
  for them to advance 
from renter to home owner 


better is now  affordable 
 if you got a clean credit sheet

mobility and immobility 
interpenetrating 


how dialectical 

but enough of up

downs where most will be  at

thats the profit game 


let us ponder this

the major product 
of
immiserization is........

misery 
 
but then 
misery loves compnay
and  being in company 
means potential 
 group  awareness 
and often  
 group awareness 
means empowerment ....

and


okay 
 okay i hear ya


" shut the fuck up eve 

 some of us
  are  tryin to work around here " 



--------------------

addendum

here is an exchange on same
over at the grackles site 

this is moi here first
frantically back peddling
and self justifying 


the notion of blood spilt here

_--- if the house  lot  bubble  pops-----

is that of the better off wage stiff
trying to stay above water 

it gets to be a nasty desperate proposition 
leading 
to longer job days 
and plenty more of em 


and all tasks
performed with greater compliance despite 
stinking sinking real wage rates

of course "contradictions will sharpen"

and defaults are liberating 

and that's why 
these true blue mice 
can't actually drown 
at least not in high numbers

but grack u be right

these are job kulacks all 

george meany men to the bone 

no tears need flow for Homer 

NOT from the eyes
of any lower proles 
or higher progs 

but hey

i'm soft on em 

pass me that jelly donut 

-------------------------
now comes  the back snap
of herr grack o deeel 
-----------------------------

 
Soft spot? Soft spot? My soft spot is bigger than 
your soft spot any day. -- Okay, okay, *as* big. 

Which is why I hate to see this poor 
blue-collar mortgagee chasing some brass ring 
that will always be kept just out of his reach.
The longer the game goes on, the worse his 
situation gets. 

So there's a default and a walk away -- very 
painful and humiliating, and then it turns out 
that half the guys he knows are in the same 
boat. What does he conclude from that? If he's 
not a fool -- and I don't think he is -- he 
might draw some pretty salutary lessons 
from the experience. 

-------------------------
notice that beautiful last paragraph 
especially:
 
 "and then it turns out 
that half the guys he knows are in the same 
boat. What does he conclude from that? If he's 
not a fool -- and I don't think he is --..."
 
 ------------------------------

not able to just

walk away

i jabber back once more 

in loopy curlers

---------------------------

WE ARE IN TOTAL AGREEMENT
ABOUT PLAN B THAT IS

if they are 
SO TURKEY ROPED 
THEY 
DEFAULT 

IT'S INDEED LIBERATING ASK PINKY

MY CONCERN 
IS FOR PLAN Aers 
THOSE 
THAT WILL MOVE HEAVEN AND EARTH
IE JOBBLE THEMSELVES SPASTIC 
THEMSELVES 
THEIR SPOUSES 
AND WHO EVER ELSE
CAN BE DRAFTED INTO
THE JONES FAMILLY 
"SAVE OUR FACE "
OVER TIME HOURS CLUB

AND ALL THIS 
JUST 
TO AVOID DEFAULT
PRESERVE A CREDIT SCORE
ABOVE 600 ETC ETC ETC 

CREDIT ADDICTS ARE THE PRIME PRODUCT
OF TODAYS FIRST WORLD JOB SYSTEM 

THE just to have A JOB BE KOOL
ain't enough 

BASIC JOB SCARCITY 
ISN'T MAX ENOUGH

THE TOWER BOYZ
LIKE TO OFFER A CARROT TOO

AND YET THE CARROT MUST BE ITSELF 
A FURTHER MEANS OF ENTRAPMENT 

I NOTICE HERE 
AMONG MY SOFT SPOT VICTIMS
ONLY THE CREDIT HOOKED 

GIVE EM MORE LINE 


SIMILARLY I'M AGIN TUFF LOVE 
FOR HEROIN ADDICTS

KOLD TURKEY ???

NEVER WORKS
EXCEPT ON SELF SADISTS

I SAY 
JUST GIVE EM ALL THE SNOW THEY WANT 
FREE TILL IT KILLS EM

THEY'LL DIE HAPPIER AND LESS EXPLOITED 


----------------

BACK TO THE JOB KULACKS

ITS A NO WIN REALLY EITHER WAY

I WAS TRYING TO POINT OUT THAT SHORT OF REVOLUTION
THE RESULTS OF E MIZZZZZ ER I ZZZZATION ARE ....MISERY 

AN ENLIGHTENED Rx ??

i have none 
THERE IS NONE 

ITS HARDLY 
BETTER IF THIS UNSUSTAINABLE CREDIT FLOW
JUST SLOWLY ABATES 

TO SEE EM
SQUEEZED LESS NOW 
JUST SO THEY CAN BE SQUEEZED LONGER 

ITS PAINFUL 
TO SEE EM 
SUCCEED 
AND TO FAIL 


THIS WAS A MOMENT OF TRIBUTE
TO THOSE WHO WILL 
SUCCEED IN THEIR ARDUOUS COURSE 
BETWIXT SCYLLA AND LADY C 
AND FOR THAT VIRTUE
BE NICELY EXTRA SPECIALLY 
EXPLOITED THE WHOLE REMAINING 
WAY
ACROSS TO THEIR RSP CASKET