House of Paine

how long can this go on ........ made simple

  whats got em so  skunk drunk....???


  Uncle's  payments deficit 
running at 6-8 %
                    of GDP 

big deal comrades 

=================================


 they blubber 

"look at the reagan 
                  dollar reversal
 
look at ...
life 
after plaza....
was that lucky context ???


can that be pulled off
                     again ???
  under todays conditions

  up here 
         at  this 
              "way " higher  
                          wire height ????

--------------------------------
theanswer of course

crucially 

 depends on 


how long  uncle has  

to get back to ...a normal range  ?????

15-20 years 

or
    a mere  5 ????




but first 
lets calculate .....


   when would the ratio of gdp 
to external debt stop getting worse ????

lets look at the devil's option

 we  lift
   and then keep
  the  deficit rate 
              at 9 %

 well

 how fast is gdp  gonna grow

  say 3 % 

okay then
 the external debt 
will settle down to 
                 three times the gdp

if the export deficit is 3 %

then all hangs tough 


as we pay out 6%
of gdp to foreign capital holders 

eventually no matter how wild uncle gets 

the ratio will  stop getting worse

follow me ? ??

sound too high ???

well at 6%
we'd plateau at twice gdp 

thats only a tiny taper away


and if we want a precedented
                imperial state ratio 

 we  gotta
     taper to 4.5 %
and hold steady there

thats  1.5 times gdp

 

 just the exact  ratio
    butt brad
         claims
  imperial britain
    sailed 
        into the Great War on 

   and 
        SHE WAS GOIN
           FULL STEAM AHEAD 

errrr goin in that is .....



--------------------------------

 so say 1.5 times gdp 
is imperially
         swingable 
                
           for  uncle heg too 

 so whats our  trottle back
             look like ???

  uncle's  gotta  
  drop
 his  payment deficit rate
                from 7 % to 4.5 %

          ie
               by   2.5 %

over 5 years 

thats .5 per year on average 

(overa majestic
            25 
                only a non noticable .1 )

  imagining a split the diff
  .25% out of export ups
and  
.25%  out of import downs**** 


childs play either way 


===========================================


*** note .25% of gdp       = ~ 5% of exports
                and
                        = ~ 2.5% of imports