House of Paine

adventures in job scarcity : part 67

whats considered decent 
job growth per month ?

  use to be 200,000
net new jobs 

but erhhhh 
    now.....its ....

                  130,000

what happened captain? 



==================================


la times yesterday :


"With labor-force growth slowing ....

because of
 the aging of baby boomers..."

------------ what?
surely we boomers are at fault
for everything ultimately
  but slow job growth?
whats up 
can't be we're 
 retiring too fast
to be replaced
we're  not old enough yet 
to retire 

how do boomers retard job growth ?


hhmmmmm 

but then theres also ---------------------
                  "...  other demographic trends..."

---------- and what might these be.....?


 smaller job market  entering  cohorts ?

nope

 lower immigration ?

nope

a larger share of net new jobs
   are in the underground
    informal sector  ?

nope nope nope 

but if not these what?


the circle  of causation
    seems to be   
 looping the knot in on itself here

so ..

cut the knot

as in reduce the optimasl
net job flow rate 

 as in
          today...
according to our top  number crunchin pundits.... -------------- 
                  " the country needs ..."
                 ---only---
 " 130,000 additional jobs a month 
               to   absorb  all new workers "
----------------not the 200k
  the press has touted 
for three years now -----------------------

------------ya ya 130 k
thats the ticket
forget the gloom and doom
more accurate guide lines 
indicate  
things are great 
    50k plus great 
since ....  ------------
" Job growth this year 
      has averaged 
about 180,000 a month "



------------------
god bless
 
number juggles
and 
fudge factoring

 number alchemy 
is the soul of corporate amerika's 
             precision flack men 
like alan sinai  

( one need only  recall 
 the" scientific" measurements
  of the wage rising 
         price pushing 
     " trigger rate " 
      of unemployment:

it used to be 6%

then 
mr greenspan"discovered "
  that 
the rate 
 had dropped  "signifigantly"
as in 3 points
         sometime 
        during  the  roaring  90's )


 operative maxim :

if wally world 
no like the way the numbers
make   reality "look"


well   
  
 if   ya   can't 
change
            " the metric of evaluation"

 then    change
  "the evaluation of the metric" --------------


--------------------------------------------------


cartoon analogy:

title

when wally couldn't 
 make ten yards in four plays ....



(head ref)
"erh  okay okay
lets see here
           its erh  erh
   kinda almost...close ...

  bring out the chains boys...."

( chains are stretched ...)


 " what?
(he mutters)
.....only 7  fuckin yards ...?
                  shit short   again ?

ah... ah ..."

( waves over other refs 
     for a  conference)

( they all start muttering)


( maybe this can be heard)


"ya ya i know i know ..."

(or)

  " okay yup yup ...."

( suddenly they  step apart
  and
  the  head guy moves over 
the ball
        and with a sharp 
arm slicing motion  down field 
shouts )

"  first down  
first down  wally boys  ....
        firrrrrst down and 7 " ------------