House of Paine

j stroke and relative absorption

the payments picture 
after a devaluation
often
 gets worse 
before it gets better

thats the j curve 

and since expenditures 
          grow with income 
given
 the uneven rates 
of national income growth
imports lose tandem motions .... 


oh shit read this blurb.....

just forget the background panic
we got big problems wagery
but these ones
ain't hardly them ....


===================================
 


NYT
WASHINGTON, March 11 -

" America's appetite for foreign imports
 broke all records in January,
           at $ 160  billion "

" contributing to a monthly trade deficit
 that is the second highest on record."

" The $60 billion trade deficit
 defied predictions 
that a weakened dollar 
and lower oil prices 
would narrow 
the United States' trade gap "

  
 
" the trade deficit 
rose 4.5 percent
 from $55 billion in December"

-----------------------

HAN MENACE..........



 " January's trade figures
 included 
a 75 percent surge 
in Chinese textile and apparel shipments
 reflecting the end 
to global quotas "


" experts see 
 China supplying 
as much as 70 percent 
of the United States textile
 and apparel market.



the us economy is growing
 faster 
than our first world 
trading partners 
in some cases
by  as much as 2 percent
 




both leading
republican's and democrats
in the  Congress 
are looking at   limiting  imports 
of textile goods from China
 
The limits,
though approved by the administration,
may well be  
blocked by a court injunction.


"We are obviously in a free fall here"


Yet while most other industrialized countries 
enjoy a trade surplus with China, 
the United States had a deficit of $15.3 billion in January,
 the largest with a single country 
on record.

China accounted for a fourth 
of the trade shortfall 
in January. 
Among other major trading partners,
 the United States had 
a $6.2 billion deficit 
with Japan 
and $6.1 billion 
with Canada. 

The imbalance with China has led to 
increasingly loud accusations 
that Beijing engages 
in unfair trading practices,
 from hidden subsidies 
to undervaluing its currency. 

-----------------------------------------

FUTURE IMPERFECT.....



" matters should get worse
 because of the jump 
in oil prices in February"

---------- j curve  -----------

" despite the  weakened dollar 
  exports grew 
 only  0.4 percent,
 hardly  enough 
          to offset 
the import growth of 1.9 percent"

----------   rates of absorption ---------------


"the us economy is growing
 faster 
than our first world 
trading partners 
in some cases
by  as much as 2 percent"
 

"besides  Europe and Japan 
 buying fewer import goods 
because of slow
 economic growth..."

           ---heres a non text 
                             book turn --------------------                
 "American companies are 
                  raising the prices 
of their goods for exports 
rather than taking advantage 
of the weaker dollar 
to make their products 
more attractive to foreign buyers."