House of Paine

the asian currency menace

 at what point 
is it better 
for the asians 
to let their currencies rise
faster and farther  against 
the dollar ?


well lets see

=============================


 first off the nips have already been doin it

for decades

the yen in the mid seventies 
traded 500 to the dollar 

today and for a decade and a half now 
 the yen has knocked on 100 to the dollar

" one penny = one yen"
 has been a target of international policy types
 since the mid 80's 

is that enough appreciation for ya ?


so why they go slow now

same reason the euros do

the ex/im effect 

  not that this shows 
in a simple surface way 
but no one likes 
to get squeezed 
by  falling foreign market prices
which is what 
the strengthening home currencyproducer exporter faces
 if he  doesn't raise prices 
over seas 
in the weakening currencies markets
but then he may lose share to tighter priced competitors
and even to weak currency restarts  

so eating dollars 
to keep the currency level 
avoids this problem

 but now you got another problem
stacks and stacks 
of  bonds in dollars 
that you expect 
have a negative rate of return
compared to say 
an alternative hard holding 
like euro bonds

 so how u weight the up and down sides here?

easy trade comes ahead

cause the loses in bonds
held by the government
 are socialized
where as 
the profits 
of trade 
are privatized

get it 

dracula likes blood 
and nothing else
profits are blood
profits come from trade
dracula runs the blood bank

so  
the yen stays low 
--------------------------

ok pink but 
then 
 why the 5 fold increase 
in the yen  over 30 years?

middle ground 

the alternative 
was a euro-american 
united front 

trade barriers  
legal illegal 
whatever it takes
cause 

"its our game 
we made the rules
mister jap
so we can 
change the rules"
or
 just brake em 

 "yen up or  trade down " 

--watch out hans 
this is your future choice too  --------

ie the process is managed 

only 
by arriving at acceptible 
 "middle-muddle  moves"
can it function 


---------------------------
 global history is very nasty
it only has a few examples 
of eachof its universal  structure 
since 
it morphs so damn fast and often

but based on   
at best one or two  prior cycles
with anything 
like comparable structures  
ie 
1712-1815
1815-1945 

this one can say:

 
 if you got property
or at least a decent job

u should 
 thank god these guys
 all know
in their heads
if not their hearts
in the end
they all have 
to work toward compromise

its like MAD 
mutual assured destruction

each player knows 
he can't run the table 
and get away with it 

its play together or face 
'29 II

 YES 
thank god  
  they all see international trade
 as the basis 
of their DIRTY CRIMINAL profit expansions

(which in detail today
means 
export capitalists types 
and their trader side kicks 
  running the show
   in all the main countries )

cause 
 when this brakes down 
as it has before (29)
and will again

 u iz in for 
a bad ride baby 

but never fear 

the record seems to indicate
if such one off 
after one off
 comparisoning 
 can be trusted
at all
 (and they  probably can't) 

if our  
  system 
holds to "form"
(and it probably won't)
we've got to go thru  
 a general war of the titans
first 

like the two stager
1914-1918 1939-45 
or 
the wobbly long one stager 
         1793-1814 


  
and  if the first stage comes a cropper
then we get 
a '29 

 where all agin all sets in
on the economic front 

inter- imperial war
 by other means 
which leads 
to inter-imperial war
 by war means 
in fairly short order 


my guess another 
 end of the system like 1914

is at leat 24 years away

i'll not likely live to see it 

and  there fore 
even less likely 
to see 
   a big one 
like '29

which could only come 
after the war of wars  

( as to the great war III
bores me just to think of it

like a giant endless
combo
of veterans day parade
and funeral procession 
and thats if we're winning  
 
but  boy oh boy 
i surely would like 
one of them economic catastrophes
                        to spectate )


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