House of Paine

dollar dodos

shit now
 not only is big crack 
 klintoxx loose and shitting poison grapes

but now 
the count of poison himself
 the ever so green-guy has 
started to beat 
the doomed  dollar drum

shit now i gotta defend 
the meaning of the dollar drop
agin 
the hideous orks 
out there 
pulling their usual 
fiscal ball squeeze 

heres more....
and less ...

===================================


the folowing is hair tearing craig pope  rodriquez 

perhaps as ignorant a hedge hog as 
socio-economic realities
 can shipout to  us these days

well here he be 
from the wilds of raw meat
stun - belt   america 

--------------------------

 "China's currency
 peg to the US dollar
 prevents correction 
of the US trade imbalace 
and imperils 
the US dollar's role
 as reserve currency "


----------- such will prove 
to be the sum and substance
of stew pot paul's 
  bog bellow here -----------


--- but first some cartoon trade and finance history tales ------


In the post World War II period,
 the dollar took over 
the reserve currency role 
from the British pound,

-----------imperial dollar true 
 but the title was taken
from "gold" not the pound --------


 because the supremacy 
of US manufacturing
 guaranteed US trade surpluses 

--------- no because the us gold reserves were huge 
    and everyone else owed us money --------------

The British pound 
lost its role due to debts
 of two world wars,
 loss of empire,
 a run down industrial base, 
and socialist attack
 on UK business. 
--------- that last bit about socialist attacks 
is piling on after the whistle craig
by the way the whistle blew in 1931------------

---------- ten yards loss of down-----------

The reserve currency 
conveys unique advantages 
on the favored country. 



--------------amen brother 
only problem here is the false impression given
of univers size

actually its always been one off after one off
example 

1880 gold standard
1930 shambles
1950 dollar pegged to gold
1980 dollar foot loose and rabid 

i.e.
 the bretton woods regime was not 
really like 
the regime of the classic
 late victorian 
gold standard system

of course not gold is gold baby !

and to sneek the pound in 
as the currency pin up  girl
 of 1890 or 1925 
like say uncle dollar was in 1956  
is catcall worthy 
                non sense 

the pound was the power cuurency
and indeed was held as a goodly part of some nations reserves
 but its role was always in the shadow of its gold value 
"a slave to gold "
of course efforts to keep "its place" 
 really never survived the first great war ------------


As the reserve currency,
 the US dollar is guaranteed 
a high level of demand.
-here is where some quanitative stuff needs introjection
for example official world wide reserves and dollar share 
plus the ratio of these to international 
 trade and financial activity----------------

 Foreign central banks 
hold their reserves in dollars

-------- indeed ---------------


 and countries are billed 
in dollars for their oil imports,


---------and much elseis dollar payable too
 but this has no real signifigance 
by itself
unless the saudi clique for instance
for political reasons
 say 
pins  the dollar price of oil
by upping its pumping rate 
when the dollar declines
 against the other world  currencies -----------


 which requires other countries 
to buy dollars with their currencies. 
---as i said this is not meaningful
it is neutral 
 if oil moves up in price
 as quick as the dollar falls
or goes down as quick as
 the dollar rises aginst the other big currencies----------


As a reserve currency 
fulfills world needs 
in addition to the functions 
of a domestic currency
 
the favored country 
can hemorrhage debt 
for a protracted period
 on a scale 
that would promptly wreck 
any other country's currency

-- despite some over staged word choice
 i'll let this pass ---------

This advantage is a two-edged sword,
 because it permits 
the reserve country 
to behave irresponsibly
 by running large trade 
and budget deficits
. When the tide turns against 
the reserve currency,
 its exchange value collapses.

----------what case are you citing here bozo?
there has never been such
 an occurance 
even accepting the fallacy 
of cross regime comparisons 
the inter zone 
say between 1930 and 1946 
say trade shrivel for a complex of interelated causes------------

The reason for the collapse 
is the huge stock 
of reserve currency
 held by foreigners. 

----non sense
in fact the huge holdings 
is the buffer of buffers ---------


When other countries conclude 
that their hoards 
of dollars represent claims
 that the US cannot meet
 dollar dumping begins


---hey this ain't some country bank nit wit ----------

 Financing for US debt dries up
 interest rates rise; 


------------only maybe -------------


imported goods
  become unaffordable


--------------- only likely 
and probably less then the dollar drops --------------


 and living standards fall

-- living standards
aaahh

before we produce we consume

in the beginning 
was the breakfast
not the chores -------------

------------ be afraid 
yee shaggy brained buffalo heads 
be afraid !!!!!!!!

 i love the plunging standard 
of living scare
this amounts to agitation
for a poison  Rx
  
 " stampede to fiscal balancefolks"

and by doing so 
cut  some fof youzz
  starndard of living 
    real far 
as theey tumble into joblessness 
and their gathering mass
retards
every  othere nits 
 wage rate
perhaps well 
below inflation 

up the RAU ?

yup

"UP THE RAU " 


rubinomics 101  

imagine gang
to   save our standard of living
 it may be  necessary to destroy it 
for millions of our fellow geepers  ---------------

Flight from the dollar 
is already underway 


---- and gosh its already well into the back stretch
maybe nearly completed 
my guess the euro has 15% more to climb-------------


During the past two years, 
the US dollar has declined 52% 
against the new European currency,
 the Euro.

--------- good ----------------
 
This decline
 is striking in view
 of the sluggish European economy
 and the fact that many analysts 
regard the Euro as merely 
a political currency.


------------ sorry this means nothing
 as far as i can figure 
if we're to be off 
i prefer
wrong way  alex  co -burn 
     with his entertaining phrase turn
"the euro as the blue helmet currency "----------

--------actually the euro 
today as always 
is the torture rack
type plaything  
 of a pack of 
super hard" make it hurt"
   freaked out   kraut psychos
that make rubin look like
a deetroit pimp  -----------------


Indeed, the dollar is declining
 against all currencies 
that have any international standing:

 the British pound, 
the Canadian dollar,
 the Australian dollar

---english speaking money? -----------

 and even against
 the Japanese yen
 despite Tokyo's intervention 
to support the dollar.
------------- the yen has taken a measured
advance from a  lower  yen value
for a trillion good reasons 
not least of which is
the grotesque fact
that  they're still recovering from the last big rise 
in yen value 
and that ended 15 years ago!------------


Overcome by hubris 
and superpower delusion
 US policymakers 
are unaware 
of America's peril.

-- go for it craig ballfree 
         go for it
 I just love to here it 
  even if you got
 the wrong one of uncle's  hosses
and you're chartin' out  the wrong race -----------


 Economists and pundits 
are equally in the dark.

--------- by the by
this robotz guy hates the hackademic econ-con proffs ------------

Economists believe that decline 
in the dollar's exchange value
 will correct the US trade deficit
 by reducing imports and increasing exports.
 Once upon a time 
a case could be argued 
for this logic. 
But that was a time 
before US corporations
 took to outsourcing jobs
 and locating production 
for US markets offshore. 


--------- perfect non "at the margin "thinking here 
he's got it all wrong 
of course it will improve our trade balance
it may even reduce capital exports too
either or both
improve our payments balance -----------

US imports of goods and services 
rise each time a US factory
 moves offshore 
or a US job is outsourced.


-----actually no
cause it reduces our income 
to spend on imports -----------

 Goods and services produced offshore
 by US corporations for US customers
 count as imports 
and worsen the trade deficit.

--------- who needed to be told that----------

 The US cannot reduce 
its trade deficit by increasing sales
 to China of goods made by US firms in China.
---------- if this seems useful to mention then ...-----


 "Outsourcing is export substitution."

------------- yes indeed 
 but walmart's sovereign 
 coonsumers out source by their choices too ----------------------

It is amazing that US policymakers 
and economists do not understand 
that dollar devaluation
 is meaningless 
as long as China
 keeps its currency pegged 
to the dollar.


--how silly this is
  you will see 
paully wosss--it
knows  we import most
 of our shit from else where ----------


America's greatest trade imbalance
 is with China.
 In 2000 the US merchandise trade deficit
 with China became larger 
than the chronic US trade deficit with Japan

. By 2003 the US trade deficit
 with China was almost twice 
as large as the US deficit with Japan:

 $124 billion versus $66 billion.
 This year the US trade deficit 
with China is expected to be $160,
 a 29% increase from last year.

This imbalance cannot be corrected 
as long as China maintains the peg.

--------right ...-----------


 As the dollar falls 
against the Euro and other currencies,
 the Chinese currency falls with it,

---right ---------


 thus maintaining China's advantage
 over US goods in world markets

---what ? it maintains chinas advantage over all appreciating currency economies 
this is super han bashing
no more no less
he might mention the japs and euors 
are the ones this peg really clobbers ------------------ 

Both the Clinton and Bush administrations 
are guilty of permitting China
 to maintain a grossly undervalued currency 
that sucks productive capacity 
out of the US.
 The combination of cheap Chinese labor 
and an undervalued currency 
are destroying
 US middle class living standards. 
--- bash areenio --------------

As America's industrial base erodes,
 so does its competitiveness 
and ability to close 
its trade deficit through exports.

Currency markets 
cannot correct 
the undervalued Chinese currency
 because China does not permit 
its currency to be traded 

----non sense trade all you want 
just don't expect it 
 to move against the dollar -------------


and there are insufficient stocks 
of Chinese currency
in foreign hands 
with which to form 
a currency market

------- no no no no no

there is no interest in specing the yuwn
when its still  basically a dollar play
if the chink CB decides to permit
a yuan move on uncledollar
just u  watch the run to yuans -------------

Sooner or later 
the peg will come to an end-

----- and then what will you say dimbit -----------

-perhaps when China fulfills 
its WTO obligation 
to let its currency float
 When the peg ends
 it will deliver 
a severe shock 
to US living standards

 Suddenly, Chinese manufactured goods-
-including advanced technology products-
-on which the US is now dependent
 will cost much more. 
Overnight, shopping at Wal-Mart
 will be like shopping 
in high-end department stores.
--when the yen rose in the late 80's
 there was no big inflation 
in americanretail market
 jap produced  prices
cause the japs  dump priced everything 
ie let the domestic  market take up the slack 
by raising domestic mark ups 
like we do on drugs ---------




Recently, Goodyear Tire and Rubber Company
 declared its intention 
to close all US plants 
and to manufacture offshore
 for US markets.

 Each time the US loses an industry,
 America's export potential
 declines 

----------- only maybe --------------

 This scenario guarantees
 a rising trade deficit 
and the end of the dollar's 
reserve currency role.



-------wwhooops what i miss
the end of our reserve currency role

why ass hole why 

real problem the man won't attack 
the core of a high dollar policy

capital export 
coupled 
with 
us owned
 foreign built 
commodity imports

i e us corporations capture the super profit 
see this and its simple
but one doesn't look to china" to shoot blame " ---------------------

--RANKFURT, Nov. 19 - Alan Greenspan 
came to the home 
of the euro on Friday 
and suggested that the relentless decline
 of the dollar might well continue,
 offering little relief 
to those here who worry 
that the United States
 is seeking to gain
 a competitive advantage 
for its industries 
from a weaker currency. 

 ballooning foreign borrowing 
on the part of the United States 
poses a future risk
to the dollar's value.

 foreign investors,
 who help finance 
the large American trade
 and budget deficits 
by buying Treasury securities 
and other dollar-denominated assets,
 would eventually resist 
lending more money
 to the United States,
 causing the dollar 
to fall further.

 Treasury secretary, John W. Snow, 
 rule out intervening 
in currency markets 
to help Europe and Japan 
- both heavily dependent
 on exports to sustain economic growth 
- stem the decline of the dollar.
Mr. Snow, speaking in London,
 prodded European leaders 
to tackle their home-grown 
economic problems.

-------------------------------

now for the green man hizz seff

acccording to the grey lady today

couching it  all 
in his usual 
cocktail
of 3 parts  butlers euphemisms 
and 2 parts snake oil fine print

greeny told the worlds top bankers

essntially:

" Washington, 
 is prepared
 to tolerate 
a weaker dollar 
for the foreseeable future."


heres a nice green finger :

'Given the uncertainties
 surrounding 
the global economy,
 Mr. Greenspan 
likened predicting 
the dollar's path to

 "forecasting the outcome
   of a coin toss." '

' To analysts,
 the speech had a laissez-faire tone,
 leaving events in the hands 
of the market 
and giving speculators
 free rein to bet against
 the American currency 
without worrying 
that officials 
would get together
 to slap them down.'

 ' Europe,
  is increasingly worried
 that the rise of the euro
 is choking off its tenuous recovery.
 In France and Germany, 
growth in the third quarter
 dropped to 0.1 percent,
 as exports dried up.'

---  the fire is lit ------------

European leaders are already raising distress flags
. Germany's minister for economics, 
Wolfgang Clement, 
urged Asia, Europe and the United States 
to take coordinated action
 to stop the slide. 


---------- the cb cartel as seventh cavalry
problem consensus is required here 
and greeny has spoken the dollar will slide on ------


The president of the European Central Bank,
 Jean-Claude Trichet -
 who is Mr. Greenspan's counterpart here - 
has called the shifts 
in exchange rates "brutal."

---- a frog croaking in german --------------

.

.

The current account deficit,
 which encompasses annual trade
 as well as 
the balance of financial flows, 
has gone from zero in 1990 
to nearly $600 billion this year.



------------- the litanypart 1  ----------------------
 The nation's accumulated debt
 to foreign investors is $2.6 trillion, 
equivalent to 23 percent 
of the annual output of the economy.
------------------- litany part 2 -------------------



.

"Current account imbalances, 
per se, need not be a problem," 
green finger said 

and added 
'in a characteristically
technical speech '

" cumulative deficits, 
which result in a marked decline
 of a country's net international position 
- as is occurring 
in the United States -
 raise more complicated issues." 

------------ he might as well do elaborate 
tricks with his fingers here its so non communicative ------------

----sphynix without a scret ----------------------

'

"It seems persuasive 
that given the size 
of the U.S. current account deficit,
 a diminished appetite 
for adding to dollar balances 
must occur at some point," 
Mr. Greenspan said. 

"But when, through what channels,
 and from what level 
of the dollar? Regrettably,
 no answer to those questions
 is convincing."
--------- some day maybe sooner maybe later ------------

echo's of last february's

" foreign investors, 
both private and official, 
may become less willing 
to absorb ever growing claims
 on U.S. residents."
------------- like an off stage hee hee hee "-------------



' Mr. Greenspan said on Friday 
that his preferred remedy 
would be for the Bush administration 
to bring down the current account deficit
 by taking steps 
to shrink the federal budget deficit.

----------- here we go 
Rx dr green finger 
squeeze out as much social spending as possible ----------------


 That would make more domestic savings 
available in the United States,
 reducing the dependence 
on foreign borrowing.

----non sense the way to
 write this up
is to say
by squeezing  social spending 
uncle can indirectly 
 cut consumer and producer import 
purchases  -----------------



green fingers
muffled fuck u

' will be cold comfort
 to many Europeans, 
who say that their currency 
is absorbing the bulk 
of the pressure 
from the declining dollar'


---------and they are thats the point -------------


' since Japan and other Asian countries
 have intervened aggressively 
in the market to prevent
 their currencies from rising significantly 
against the dollar.'

Mr. Greenspan took issue 
with that suggestion, 
saying that based on his review 
of recent statistics,
 Asia's "very large"
 central bank interventions
 had had only a "moderate" effect
 on exchange rates.

.--- gotta love that cat purr 
over the few feather's that remain ----------

as to greeny's implied
"so what ya gonna do about
euro trash  ?"


"They are basically 
seeing that there 
is very little 
they can do about it,
They are not in a position
 to change interest rate policy
 to address it."

=====================================================