House of Paine

han banko bunko

  watch out han guyz

the IMF iz laffin 
at ya.......

here u are
 caught and worried
just where
 mostthird rate  countries
would die to be 

my advice:


under the circumstances
whatever you  do  
try not 
to do 
what you're 
urged and expected
to do 
 

let  wall street know
you ain't no 
okee dokee third rate 
 first world flunkee outfit  

==================================


 
hONG KONG, Oct. 28 

" China's central bank
 raised official borrowing costs 
for the first time 
in nine years Thursday night
in  a step aimed at slowing
 breakneck economic growth 
and inflation "

  ---- really?
      then why so small a move?
    tokenism or  symbolism mayhaps?
 an attempt to curb the critters 
    by a harmless warning shot -----

 "but one that could risk 
social unrest
 if heavily indebted state companies 
respond by laying off more workers"

---- no chance with thiz tiny bump 
by the way
 this article's author 
  proves later to know this full well -----


-----------------------------------------------

 "Beijing also removed 
the ceiling 
on what banks could charge 
for loans"

 ----- now we're talkin 
sounds to me 
like the party 
wants to retain control 
of the financial commanding heights--------


"a measure that could make
 more loans available 
to risky private enterprises "

------no not neceassarily
more loans
just a larger share
of whatever loans there are 
will now be  
public statey type loans 
 and why not   -------

 "and ultimately enhance
 China's long-term 
growth prospects 
and 
give its economy 
much greater stability"

------- this is a news article 
by the way
isn't this trumpeteering silly
not to mention
the too heavy handed
utterly 
press relations 
type  bogus analysis 

stuff like this should be blacked out 
for every  ones good...
please ass hole
first try 
to understand the real story
and 
then  
  flat out tell it 
  
' the informal grossly profir stuffed 
mainland  reloan market
is headed for a  public 
squeeze job 
if not  an out right
          close down ' -----
-----------------------------------------


 "The two moves 
shift China further toward 
a Western-style financial system 
in which markets determine 
the allocation of credit
 not government officials "

-------
  pure sky cream 
 no credit system anywhere
 actually 
  "rations "
  by interest rate

why the toot toot ?
  
cause weak handed third rate systems
allow imf and wall stret bankers 
to over run them
 a syustem that controls all investment
is to strong for those
trying to make the globe 
everywhere safe 
for first world corporate 
transnational investments--------------

 
 
 anywhere and everywhere
 setting
  rates is secondary
to aggregate loaned out 
              fund targets

after credit parameters are set 
  credit expansion 
is controled 
in an " level field " 
financial market
            by 
lifting  or lowering 
  these credit "requirements" 
to keep 
the over all 
loan  expansion  path 
               on macro target


 this has little to do 
with immediate 
macro management 
 the han 
 central bank is  here
giving notice
to one and all
that it is planning
to extend
 its " direct"  control
  to
" further out"
 formerly 
secondary credit  markets ------


 "The interest rate increase
 is widely expected
 by economists 
to be the first 
in a series of increases 
that could lift rates 
by as much as 
two percentage points 
in the coming year "

--big deal-----------


" this  could seriously
 curtail economic growth"

------ not so
2 % changes stand alone
are nearly meaningless
in a system running 5-10 % inflation rates 
 
  if lets say
you decide  
 to  uncoil 
           the present over heated
                disfunctional 
                    land price spiral 
that will
require
 direct administrative action 

a stern series of 
 " no no no no no's "
   
plus 
 calling 
some 
 outstanding 
real estate
bridge loans
do a few  marginal
fuckers in 


(like 
 our own  banking system
pulled when 
the word went out
to 'kill'
 the real estate boom 
  in america's north east
 as a diversion 
 during the south west
   S&L BLOW back  of  '87-'89 )

           these moves 
reported here
are part 
of a  capture and control
package 

its first target?

   whack out
      the obscene 
and destablizing 
         insider 
state borrowing- reloan profiteering
    thats fueling
  this  sepeculative jamboree

let the public banks grab 
more of this spread  --------




-----------------------------------------



" Indebted property developers
and laid-off workers 
are likely to be  angry "

----- as i just pointed out
the developers 
of spec residential towers 
are probably just
exactly
 who the bureaucrats
   have in their sights 
here 

if for no other reason
just 
to keep em 'honest"
at least in part 
for their own long run "good" 

collective irrationality
can only be drowned out
by concerted public action-------------

----------
  as to all thiz angry jobless 
      shit 
even a negative 
 "real"
   rate of 10-13 %
wouldn't
be enough 
financial moxie
to  keep things cookin 
 good enough 

nope nothing
will calm the jobless waters 
for that task 
much  " higher "
administrative methods
   are mandatory 

 better bring back deng...----------
 
 

--------  partial sum up here :

the rationing of credit 
on the mainland 
   has been done 
without changing
 the nominal  rate 
              for years

the real problem 
today

is the burgeoing 
private lending activity

all this stuff 
going on outside the system
happens in large part
because 
 bank rates are too low 
on 
thats on both ends

loaning and depositing
( dposit returns are rediculously
too low)

this more then  "encourages"
funds diversion
 into informal  relending 
and  at a profit 
that is both "too large" 
            and "too easy"
     -------------------------------------

 ---- here's some more
        biz journalism 
at its usual ignorant putty like best----

 "After concluding last spring 
that the economy was expanding
 at an unsustainable pace
 and fueling inflation,
 Chinese leaders initially chose
 mostly administrative methods 
to try to limit excessive growth,
 like the denial of approvals 
for construction projects."
------------ yes  but...---------------


"But these methods 
have failed to rein
 in rising prices"

" Consumer goods, on average,
 cost 5.2 percent more 
last month than a year earlier
 despite price controls
on many products "

 "Price increases are running 
at nearly 10%
  for goods 
traded between companies 
which are subject to
 fewer price controls."
----commodity price 
         inflation out of control?
               i doubt it --------------



--------------------------------------------

" The Peoples Bank 
also ended years of regulations 
tightly limiting the maximum interest rates 
that banks could charge on loans."

----------- here is how 
you get out there into 
     that further  up stream loan  market ----------


" The limits,
 which the Peoples Bank
 started to loosen last December,
 had discouraged the country's banks,
 almost all state-owned, 
from taking the risk of lending
 to small and medium-size private companies."

----leaving it to relending
       arbitageurs and private bankers
nice ducks in a barrel biz
prolly conducted
at least in part
 by the stateys themselves 
off the records 
 so if yer gettin cut in
  why  move on thiz now ?
good question
prolly cause 
the indecent spread
is so large
 the reloan game 
 has accelerated out of all control
and is feeding on itself
  so blatantly
so grossly and irrationally 
 that  all these fucking  informals 
have simply got
 to get the yank down
                          ------------- 



 "The Peoples Bank 
said in a statement 
that its moves
 were partly aimed 
at keeping money in the banking system"

----------- ah now shoe two drops
why deposit your cash
in a state bank
 when you can earn
 so much more 
lending it out directly ------------------ 


 "Affluent urban Chinese families 
in particular
 are turning away 
from depositing money 
in banks
 at the extremely low interest rates 
offered, 
choosing instead 
to lend money directly 
at double-digit interest rates. 
  ---see how facts make sense------

" Steeply rising prices 
and low, government-mandated interest rates 
have prompted companies
 across China 
to borrow heavily 
over the last two years,"

 

---- after   misses
 the linkage 
 between state enterprises
 as primary  borrowers
and primary lenders 
 and then becoming 
patsy players 
in the "private relenders "
                 game 
at least the pols of funds outside
the banking system
are here noticed -----------


 "The borrowers have erected
 forests of apartment buildings
 expecting that prices will go up
 fast enough 
 to  repay all  the loans" 

---- if the interest rates are
 low and fixed 
anticipating 
 heavy inflation ahead in land values 
 borrowers like any rational profiteers 
take as much credit as they can get their hands on 
 because the real rate 
           is 
deep in minus territory ------------ 


 "Many of the most fashionable boulevards
 in China's urban centers 
are lined with new luxury apartment buildings
 with long rows of empty windows " 

 "few buyers can afford them.
 Yet new apartment buildings 
          continue to be built "
  


----that'll be your
inevitable irrational
self building frenzy
just before 
  el bursto
 hits   bubble time
 big time el bursto  ------------




"Economic data 
released last Friday 
showed that the tempo
 of economic growth 
in China barely slowed 
in the third quarter
 despite the  credit squeeze
 of the spring 
 and 
 in what may be
an even more disturbing
   development  
  the Chinese economy 
   seems    to be re-accelerating  "
          
 
--------- now how about exchange rates ?-----------

 "By raising the interest rate now 
but leaving the exchange rate unchanged,
 Beijing runs the risk 
that speculators will pour even more money
 into China -
 possibly stoking inflation further -
 in the hope that Beijing 
will eventually have to allow 
the currency to appreciate."

---------- here is a fairly clear picture 
of hot money at work

only antidote
 state credit controls
just what the imf wants china to drop 
so like the rest of the third rate world
she will be at the mercy
of the specs -------------

 

 "If China were to follow 
the I.M.F.'s recommendation,
 by  letting the yuan trade 
in a wider range 
against the dollar 
 then the short-term effect
 would probably be
a dramatic  appreciation 
  of the yuan. "


  ---  right
  seems the  han boyz
want to stay in the saddle here
       even as the ride 
      gets wilder and wilder 
                                 -----------


----- obviously
under the conditions on the ground
higher official  rates make good sense 
if  credit markets are  
running away from 
the public sector
 merely
to feed
 private  specs 
trading  in land and currency 
 you want the money manderin's 
to crush in a vice 
like their so many
useless  fucking 
dung  beetles 

likewise 
if  cash 
instead of being deposited
is getting lent out directly
 by private lenders 
this disintermediation
must be cramped if not killed
at least 
make the "cost in opportunity 
higher
by setting up 
not only decent deposit rates
but also offer
inflation adjusted accounts

      so what if 
           now and again
you run a negative flow
so what if some of your loans
run out there 
 below  full cost 
your the state
not a private banker
theres always more 
 for you and you alone
there's always more cash
if you need it 
cause you're the guyz that  print it 

soak up the outstending cash cash 
make it all flow thru you
 do it and do it
 at all costs 
get itall under
 the bright lights 
the system is yours to control
 so control it

keep  the stuff 
where you can track it
     easily 
--------------------------------

next time

 don't confuse 
currency and land 
bubble busting
 with 
the horrible mistake
 of 
 tightening industrial
 and infrastructutre 
             construction

let that fly baby fly
let the system growth thru imbalances

when theres  labor slack
there is no real cost

the  worlds biggest and best 
work force 
is there to be tapped 

full employment
is miles away

shit you got 200 milion 
grossly under employed 
          in the country side  ---------



---- by the way i'm sure
this is futile advice

the central bank of china
may not be run from wall street (thank god)

but its still "run"
not  for the welfare of the broad toiling masses
             but for the very profiteering specs
i'm suggesting the bank  try to croak 24/7 

     yes Dotty dear
      vampires  run
 the han blood bank too------------