House of Paine

housing bubble? even the times wonders

is the market  value 
of your house lot
already  
     unsustainibly high ?

 is it a bubble?

will it burst ?


" bubble bubble boil and ...."


 =================================================== 




here's 
the sober sided 
Times of new york...

" about 20 percent of consumer debt 
is adjustable-rate financing,
 and about 40 percent 
of new home mortgages 
have adjustable rates. "

"The so-called financial obligations ratio

( a broad measure 
of  mandatory
 monthly household payments)

 has climbed sharply 
since the early 1990's
 and peaked at 18.5 percent 
of disposable income in 2002."

"According to Federal Reserve data
 homeowners' equity
 was equal to 66 percent 
of the value 
of their real estate
 during the 1970's.
 That share declined
 to an average 
of 56.8 percent in the 1990's
 and is now about 55 percent."

-------------------------------------------

  now averages and aggregates 
don't get at the cutting edge

one needs a distribution 
for a sense
 of the danger ahead

 if there's a big chunk 
hanging in the danger zone  
          a burst 
is not only possible

but  will cause 

well....   

mayhem

-----------------------------------
of course 
one needs more facts 
then pink's 
got at his finger tips

hence the weasil

knowing the facts not at all
 
t'is but 
 speculation
albeit 
rational
 and quantitative
----------------------------
but to get 
the ball rolling here

spiking interest rates
combined 
with a sufficient flock 
of geepers

with  variable mortgages
in their adjustment phase 
and  
an already high
(above 25% ) obligation ratio
       and
 an equity margin 
   " before the deluge "
      below    25%
             and ...

one need not be a trot
to see where this could 
 wiggle irs ass into 

maybe not
ka -ploowee-ville

like say a gold spike 

but some protracted nasty
 hand to hand
foreclosure type 
"equity under water" 
                 klass war  

slow chronic grinding 
merciless  and brutal

the debt  weebles 
versus 
    the kredit kombine 

suburban dust bowl shit ?

prolly not

given fanny mae  freddie mac 
and  bag holding uncle Sap
 and his  taxin'  power based
  credit rating....
 
 but fuck
before its over
this is for sure

 a lot of folks 
will end up  feeling
and looking like 
they  got  
fixed up 
at 
a blind barber school   
complete with

crooked parts
bare spots 
clipped ears 
gashed chins 
and 
snipped lips .....
-------------------------------

" bubble bubble boil and ...."


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