House of Paine

zogby vs gallup

   ten point  poll spreads ?
    
hope you aren't wondering

" who's fuckin who here ?"
------------------------------------
if you are

  hey bosco boy
              get with it 

 the "Independent"  Polling outfits
                are
just  part of the scrap
                          these days
                            
===========================



 i know i know 

 its so post modern 

    which is to say
 
          its so retro to point out 

 but yes
 
no one  needs
 to waste the time 
deconstructing 
 
the public  election  polls 

 their partisan campaign weapons

no more no less


any sense 
of "objectivity"
any sense they measure 
a real preference structure
  is a clownish joke 

  all 
 polling company results
both the ones
out of for
 and non 
profit shops
got read out 
the "science" club
by  
the technical journal's 
way way   back
          in the late seventies

 yup 
  thats how long ago
 the dirty truth 
        was obvious to the experts 

 that's when

inside all the telephone
  poll  shops
         
  they gave up trying to get it right


" shit 
we can't  get enough 
  responders   anymore"

why bother pretending any more
once 
the response  rates
 drop
   off the charts
            like that 

where do you go ?

 hem and haw 
and 
pray for blow outs 

-------------------------------
" its obvious
when
people know
you  got a broken thermometer

who'll  ask you how cold it is?"
                                 lou harris 1977

---------------------

nope 

by the time ronny
was in the national saddle 

not one 
of this nations
                  top pollsters 
any  longer
tried 
"getting it done"
 
simply by 

" calling facts on the ground "

shit no
 
 back there
            in
those good old
" i like ike" days
you could sell facts

 but by 1980

"we were selling belief"

-------------------------------

and there was no quick fix

no 
  improvement 
  of  sampling technique
can cure intentional obstruction

 once too many

"walkin'  around  type " 
      americans
were turned off 

as soon 
as they 
 considered
canvasers
jerk off ass pains

any canvasers

over the phone 

 or

on the  side walk 

door to door

 or thru a box 

 whatever  

if the whole bloody process 

seemedto jean and joe average
 like 
"nothin' but
a time wastin'
pile of 
bull shit   "

 the game was over

 the shops all found 
they needed
something
brand  new to peddle 
something
besides fact finding
           
-------------------------------------
you could blame
 the pollsters themselves 
of course
          blame em  all you want

yes they 
worked their angles
          to death

pounding away  
starting after the second world war 
every second
sampling sampling sampling
fot 30 years 
 to the point 
where
poll participation
 was such a  fucking drag
                                      that ordinary people ...

  ok 
now that they all knew  
corporate america''s
 marketeers 
were facing 
a  poisoned 
     opinion   well 

what now 
          what next ?

 
cry 
"shit  
the milk's spilt 
'
and 
fold the tent ?

close the shop?

shit no way 

 got to keep this gig flyin'

so 

well

they one after another 
" re-invented" 
themselves 
 "as  purveyors
   of hiden persuaders 
                        not diagnostic tools 
 alleged
  purveyers
 of  science 
  creditable fact finders
  and cautious forecaster
who are really 
crypto influencers
band wagon efect makers
and shocking reversal conjuresr
 opinion menders
and preference benders "
  hugh roper 1984 
 

"it was a brilliant 

they simply 
 took 
their discredited 
  useless data
and put an edge on it"

turn it into 
some payin clients 
 propaganda


hell thats the usual 
  way advice moves anyway

  from fact gathering to story telling 

whether  clients always
knew it or not

 thats  the professional
move 
  
  "  no one ever got fired
  for 
  given  a client
     the  results they want "
                          john gallup
 
 so the pollsters
 just made the polling results 
 stick to the story 

"what we can gather 
   such as it iz  
  we  put an edge on 
    a nice client friendly edge '"
ted X 
    in "confessions of a pollster" 

yup today
the best of em 
 go out 
 and
offer themselves 
as covert pieces 

to whatever loks like 
the  best payin' campaign 
availible 

  especially good
payers
are the  networks or papers
  cause they 
    need the camouflage 
they need
 to look like
their tryin to gather 
the  news
not creating it 

' hey polling results
   seem so passive
   but its more aggressive then an editorial
and way way more effective"   

                roger ailes 1986    
======================


shit girl scouts

this has been the real gig
so long
    
        its no longer even a scandal in kansas 

  hence 
on the one side 
we got 
                 zogby calling it for kerry in the spring
and still callin it 

and on the other 
we got gallup
toilin away
 inside 
 the bush re-elect stealth division
callin it bush wise 


lie with numbers

thats so 60's 

not necessary


 when its close
the fudge gets easy

after all

who can lock on  to 
  say gallops 

 "likely voter" formula

and tickle out its
"intentional"
 pro bush bias

at least 
be4 november 2


puttin the results where the client wants em

hell that just


SPP

STANDARD POLLING PROCEEDURE 
-------------------------------------
 
ps


okay 
so another
" sterling silver"
modern day
quantitative 
social  science 
has goten itself
so  tarnished
by tower tyke use that....

            but who cares

          even  
                            an ape sees thru it  

ain't that better then taking these 
augury frauds 
as straight shooters 

believing nothing is a plain fact 
leaves
yer good old 
 gut conviction intact
and 
the desultory trail
of our various klass  myths 
        the whole field  
               to wonder thru 
-------------------------------------

heres a PS

  i sent this to a counterpunch chappy


the real story is fraud 

fraud at the polling shops
fraud with a capital F

wild 
fun loving
 craven 
green back producing
pepsi challenge type 
fraud

like oral roberts
 they've been selling frauds 
for years


why ?

cause they're
" payin' clients"
 find em useful

point one:

the discrepancy in results is
between the various pollsters
is  not 
bec ause of responder skew 
they all face the same playing field

its because
they each got there own
 intentional
data massage " skews" 
and they differ
as clients wishes differ

 the gals at gallup
use a likely voter predictor screen
thats  handsomely bushy

where as 
the kogs at zogs

skew toward
growin  the kerry tree 


point two:

come on 

the papers run these fuckers 
like they do zodiac sign forecasts 
entertainment
and 
hee hee hee
stealth persuasion 

check out the campaigns
in their own internal work
they focus group now
even though thats gone
 badly south too
you can correct some

but the idea of 
 polling for facts on the ground

for 24 years thats been 

 "sellective cautious 
perishable to the throw away point
auguries for non believers

haplessly trapped
by their own cries of
 'what else can we do 
 even if it isn't  any  
 better then my pant's seat ' "          
from:
 ted x's
       "confessions of a pollster "

==============================