House of Paine

the kunstler brief part 1

  

       heres 
              our hero 
mr kuntface

        on the post oil peak

commercial sector

its so pitiful i'm not sure i can go on

TO THE GEEP'S
 FARMS AND SCHOOL HOUSES

=========================


     America made the unfortunate choice 
            of allowing 
         nearly all of its retail trade
           to be consolidated 
            by a very few huge national operations,
                  
                                the Wal-Marts 
                                        and  
                               other gigantic discounters.
 
< allowing as in not preventing
no  japlike  small shop protections 
like we sorta tried with dairy farms in vermont >

 Many Americans viewed this 
as a bonanza of bargain shopping 

            

                 without noticing 
             the significant losses and costs entailed
           to their communities,
                   and
                          to the long-term health 
                                      of their nation's economy. 

< those cultural externalities 'll get ya every time  >

I have described 
< ad nauseum>

the extreme vulnerability
 of the giant national retail operations 
to the vicissitudes ahead:

 disrupted oil markets,

  < just higher and higher 
 prices or supply interuptions?
which are you afrighted by here?

can't have it both ways
either
a:
 artificial price spikes
i.e. disruptions a la '73 
or
b:
a chronic ever worsening
  output squeeze

aren't you pushing plan b here>


 far-flung supply chains,

 and so forth.

< and so forth?
you only got one note johnny
the cost of oil 
so there ain't no so forth

either
 oil prices go up
 enough
 to choke off transport
 from beyond  distance x for product y 
or it don't

either 
the higher price of oil
makes us cut our job  commute 
from n miles  to n-m miles  
or it don't

either 
the oil price increase
 cuts our retail shopping radius
from r to r - p 
 or it don't

either 
the price of oil
incresaes 
heating and cooling cost so much
we move to the nations middle 
or it doesn't 

kuntz dear you
got 
a  foggy notion
thats it 

you hope its a fact that 
the price increase 
will be as huge as it takes
to get
 the  big big final crunch  
  you jack off over  

the model necessary
 to say all this
with a meaningful precision
and 
in real detail 
like say we have 
with some 
recent  global warming
models

at least its not part of  kuntzworld

and if it did
  somewhere
it  would hardly
be 
 well served
 by your  fucking  kuntz wash > 



----------------------------------------------
  
  < once da crunch come....>


 When these behemoths go down - 
and 
they will go down hard and fast 

< they go down
why?

  because they have no
 cost advantage
in volume purchasing ?

no 
its all about
high travel costs
after the peak  
  the big boxes
won't  draw from as far
and won't get
the sales  scale effects  r>

- everyday retail trade 
will have to be 
reorganized in America.
This is a tremendous task. 

< rebuild  back to be4 1930>
 
      It will have to be reorganized 
at the local and regional scale.

 It will have to be based on 
moving merchandise shorter distances 

< this one guesses is because 
electric railroads can't take up the slack>

at multiple increments 

< we'll  go back to handling the rehandling 
but kunt might not 
 that actually
 increase net  transport mileage ?
  maybe we'll go back to general stores
one stop shop
one stop freight>

and 
probably by multiple modes of transport.

 < paddle wheelers  rickshaws hot air ballons
                               transport diversity
like bio diversity a self evident good >

 It is almost certain 
to result in higher costs
 for the things we buy -



 
 which is another way of stating
 we face a period of austerity 

< what ! why?
how far up iz up kunty ? 
jesus
 how will say 
electrical rates rise
if we  just go back to the days
of ike and 
 atoms for peace ? 
who's to say
oil price spirals won't lead to nuclear madness >


- but it is apt to bring back
 many lost civic benefits in return. 

 < now we get tto really see
this silly 
       crass struggler's  squalid middle brow blood lines >

The national chains eliminated 
practically all the "middlemen," 
who were disparaged as parasites 
adding needless costs to everyday products.
 The fact is that these middlemen
, the wholesalers, jobbers, warehousers, distributors,
 played necessary roles
 in a complex system that operated very differently
 than the current model. 

< here is where i began to feel lke
 a bully
thrashing this pipsqueak

   christ he might as well
confess he likes barber shop quartets >

They were members
 of local communities


 they were
 economic participants
 in their communities;


 they made decisions 
that had to take the needs 
of their communities into account

  < walmart don't ?>

 they were caretakers 
of civic institutions

< some things just speak 
for themselves
            beyond 
the capacity of
paraphrase
to do justice to their
full  scope

this passage iz iconic >

 and they were employers.

  , yes indeed >

 We will need this category 
of business person again,

 as we will need 
the local retailer,

< come back ma and pa >

 the persons and families 
who run local businesses 
trading with the public at large.

<  i get it
high oil prices will create 
 extra local jobs!
improve the economy 
 shit why wait for nature 
to run out of oil for uz
  we can get there on our own
 lets put a gigantic tax on oil 
 and get to this goodness right now>

 We will need a multi-layered system 
for the distribution of regular goods, 
even if it costs more to operate.

< shit he's already run out of stuff
and is circling back over japan type micro distribution utopia >

      Some of the infrastructure
 needed to re-localize American commerce
 is there,
 though it is not in very good shape -

 the urban downtowns,

< fuck reclaim  the jungle >

 small town main streets 

< shit its turned into pottersville>

and business districts

< what like china town
and the diamond  block >

 Some of the big boxes 
might be integrated with it -
 dead Kmarts may be
 the local warehouses of the future,

 < since they are already warehouses
  how can this be a stretch
but are they energy efficient enough?>

 and some shopping centers and malls 
may be retrofitted
 into neighborhood centers 

  < beatin' swords into...>
-
 but much of this newer 
car-oriented fabric 

< uuuuuwwww cars>

will more likely end up as salvage.

< "scrap the fuckers!"
                              yeeeezzz
       can you imagine 
      the wet spot
 writing this piss wish
  prolly caused our boy ? >

 The railroad system the US needs
 to replace
 the long-haul trucking system
is in poor shape 

< aahh good old fixed rail
        wow we're headed back to the guilded age
what about 
the transcontinental golden spike >


 

Perhaps our biggest problem
 is that so many products
 we're accustomed to 
are no longer manufactured 
in the United States.

<  damn here we go >


 The factories themselves have physically disappeared.

< jobz comin back again
    water wheel wind mill
          low power  factory jobs>

 Hence, another feature 
of the years ahead:
 for a period of time,

< for a period of time?
uumm thiz  bit puzzles me
i guess
 we'll  gradually replace 
all that cheap 
 over seas junk
with local crafty shit  
quantity into quality one hopes>

  
 Americans may have to 
make do with a lot less 
and
 with smaller selections 
of fewer products.

< oh please the low earning pen man
getz even
in his piedream
with all the potlatching yups
as they're  struck down
to hiz level
 a little good taste triumphs
over  
a lot a tasty goods>



 This is another reason
 to regard the coming era 
as one of austerity

< whoops isn't it the only reason?
oh ya travel for kicks will be curtailed too >.

---------------------------------------------------
       It would be a mistake
 to take this view of the coming decades 
as nostalgic. 

< the guy smellz his own fart at last >.

The future will simply demand it. 

< the future is not
just my fantasy
 its our destiny >

I happen to believe 
that there is much to gain
 in amenity from the downscaling of American life

< god who coulda figured >

. We will benefit from knowing the people
 we do business with. 




There is a good chance 
that many people currently underemployed
 will find a gainful niche to occupy
 in the reorganization of American trade,
 and communities will benefit
 from their being gainfully occupied.

< there's a rather sinister turn
       here 
the guy wants to have 
a lot of lowly servile  folk
 to patronize 
instead of 
 say
 vending machines >

But at the same time, 
we will be saying goodbye
 to a way of life 
which, however 
unsustainable 
and even crazy 
it might have been,

< here comes the insolent empathy >
 
was a set of arrangements 
we had grown accustomed to,



 and it is never easy 
for a culture to change the way
 it does things 
as fundamental as
 everyday commerce

,< ASS CAN 
DON'T THE VERY CHANGES 
YOU  LOATHE
THE TRANSMOGRIFICATIONS
BROUGHT ON BY CHEAP OIL
HIGHWAY SUDSISDIES
 HOME MORTGAGE HUCKERS
ETC ETC

DON'T THEY 
 PROVE YOU WRONG

THE FACT IS 
CHANGE CAN BE 
FORWARD OR BACK

DEVELOPMENT 
OR 
RETRENCHMENT 

REGRESS
WHICH IS YOUR PROPHECY
IS NEVER EXPERIENCED 
LIKE
 ITS PROGRESS
SO DON'T FUCKING 
CONFLATE EM

NO MATTER
 HOW 
CRUDE AND WASTEFULL
MIDDLE AMERICA 'S
BUILT ENVIRONMENT
HAS BECOME
THE HOMERS AND SUCH
HAVE VIEWED 
THE PAST 60 YEARS
AS  PROGRESS
 
TO ITS CHOOSERS
THIS WAS MORE OR LESS
 THE FUTURE
 THEY PREFERED

NOT STURBRIDGE VILLAGE REDUX

NOT HESTER STREET 
 WITH NEO- YINGLISH

NOT ARCHIE'S DUPLEX

NOT DOODY VILLE 
OR HOOTER VILLE
OR ANY OTHER FUCKING THEME PARK 

WALK TO WORK

GO HOME FOR LUNCH

SHOP AT DOBIE'S DADS GROCERY

GET YOUR SHOE
 REPAIRED
BY ELVES

YOUR HAY  
HARVESTED  BY SLAVS 

YOUR
COW MILKED
BY A DRUNK 


JESUS 
WHERE DO YOU STOP
  
RALPHS APARTMENT ?
 FOR THE MENIALS

AND 
WOODY ALLEN'S FOR YOU >

MAYBERRY FOR THE GOOGLE-PLEXERS

AND TCABIN BY THE  FINGER LAKES FOR YOU 

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