House of Paine

the real thing-shit the POLTROONS couldn't handle the "real thing"

take a good long look 
at 
alan greenspunk
and
 wall streeet bobby rubin

the once and future 
heros of world finance
imperial dollar division

come a crisis

 a real real big enough one 

come a category fiver

 shit those pussy pants

hell they'd  fold up like  silk fans

=================================


the problem with super crunch science
is 
rareness

 we haven't had a category five
credit  crisis
 since 1929


to apply even a clinical type 
 approach
we'd need a dozen or so "observables"

and under at least 
 vaguely
similar structures

unfortunately

we only got 
one world system these days 

we really need 
 about a dozen more worlds
running in rough parallel
to do 
any decent science here


and the one we got

only lays these bad bad eggs 
once in a great while

case in point

type five credit zonks

all 
we got
iz  one 

'29

and 
fuck even '29

happened
in 
  a credit  world 
 structurally
 remote 
enough 
from this one

to be
 a   dangerous precedent 

 -----------------------------------------

my  guess
  
even if 
alan a green
based on all we now know
 could  navigate
 a second '29  
more or less

that is 
if it happened again

its no comfort

cause
the bear greased fuck
 won't
 get the chance

  my hard earned
 biz-gut tells me 

 next time
we get FIVED

the bastrad

will  eat
alans magic potions 
and anyone elses
 '29 remedies  
for break fast 
----------------------------------------

okay so 
the present 
ass pipe in charge 
weathered
his first test
the 87 melt down 
on wall street

and 

the mexican  peso
 blow out

well he staggered thru that 
 
and 

he even
survived 
if without 
a drop of distinction
the 97
east by south east 
 asian thing

and that  dear hearts
was no joking
fright flight vector 
  
 butfuck kidz
i say to you

" so what "

he turned the taps
 the right way
 when the time came to act 


whats that ?

he' a wizzard
because
he didn't totally freak out

he's a miracle man 
cause  
he figured out
  he shouldn't t
 slam on the brakes

he shouldn't
panic and induce 
  system wide 
 crumpling
 to the ground
by triggering 
 a fit 
of financial epilepsy 

fuck

 come a category five 

 twurlin 
the taps 
even the right way
ain't goin' 
to mean shit....

 " oh be a dear 
and 
 pass me 
that deck chair 
could you 
        mrs  astor" 

--------------------------------------------------------

back ground:

the first
 modern type 
international
credit crisis

probably
happened
while
an exiled  Napoleon
was looking
 at himself
in a cheap
ebony framed  mirrror
and 

"what might have been"---ing

-----------------------

by around 1817 or so

the world ecomony
had evolved
an ability
 it never
showed it  had before

suddenly 

the fucker 
"produced"
a new state

a first ever 
 globe circling 
 crisis wave
that kept on
banging
 around and around
till it even
insulted  old hickory's 
 balance sheet
way back
in the wilds of tennessee

needless
 to say

since then 

the lines of
 trade
 and 
credit have 
only gotten 
way
longer
and
far more
 numerous
knoted 
and
 deep 

todays
 vast global
 intrication
 of corporate
 balance sheets 
is frighteningly
mutually
responsive

   well 
to try getting a grip on this

here comes 
the big one's 

complexity  effect
credit  crisis model
and a few 
irresponsible

 conjectures
----------------------------------------------

  obviously
 the more
exstensive 
and  complex
 the interconnections
in any credit system

the more
 one might imagine
 over time 
characteristic
 systemic effects changing 
           in
qualitatively
 surprising ways

you know 

in ways  
un guessed at before hand 

changes 
that prove 
not so  nice 
and intutive  

well
the fearless searchers
over at
PROJECT BIG ONE 
have done some work
on all this

and their results
have produced in your pinky
a dark and grave
pair of  conjecture 

------------------------------

lets hold as self evident 

as credit systems 
  get more complex
 they 
 modify their behavior

good news:

most simulations
at the big one 
indicate 

added interconnectedness
properly
managed 
yields
 higher and higher
                    "stability

now ain't
 that
great

 if its true


but 
bad news;

in a hideously diabolical
trade off

as credit networks
further 
 intricate themselves
over time 

they 
also 
acquire 
more and more 

"traumatic"

 crisis states
that if handled wrong...

well yes
you get a '29 

so much for the obvious 

-----------------------

sure its 
kind of  a bummer

then again

 if thats 
 the price 
ya gotta  pay 
to get something better...

well 

 hey
 look at nature

rocks don't die 

but birds do 


---------------------------------------
 to be a little
 specific here 


by 
using
 mega-mill
point programing
on 
teraflopus rex

the cleo mania crowd
over there
at 
THE BIG ONE 

did a wild 
series of sims

they call 

' 29 aftermaths
               a-z


  which
produces
simulations
 even I agree 
look
 convincingly like

  "real things "

at least 
on some runs
on some days 

but then
as it  turns out

looking right
ain't being right


  cause 
 
this same  model 

despite
its 
" wicked" scaling feature
 
has flunked the time test

 
even 
 working like it works
 for  sims of  '29


when it 
comes up against  '97 

"  christ 
the damn model
acts  like
 the whole global system 
shoulda
shaken itself to pieces "

hence
pinky 
conjecture

the new  real system
has auto-evolved 
alright

but not just 
  thru scale type effects

but thru something more....


---above our heads so to speak---------

the fucker 
that today
is out there
everywhere  

this  very  totalization 
of 
 all our
market place
gives and takes
all our
 borrows and lends
is
a  much more sassy and 
yet paradoxically 
stable
motherfucker

 cause  
in pinky's not so humble
opinion
nixon
when he 
dropped
the gold dollar
 out of the deal
 in 1971
did wonders 

(imagine that too
we owe
 the great one )

at any rate

some how all this jiggering around
with exchange rates
we do now 

sure it  creates
 all kinds of noisey  ups and downs

but that crappy noise
spells
greater  " flexibility "
greater "shock absorption"
  
i.e.

the present  system can 
operate at higher velocity
and higher bounce
then the 
 brit fag drafted up for uz in '44

yes the system
can bang around 
its agents all making  
horrid choices
both micro and macro 

without 

you know 

flaying itself
into a soup line  
every time
 it hits 
 a few sizable  rough patch

a nice qualitative
 improvement

too bad 
no known  model 
can yet catch
 its 
quintessence 

----------------------------------------------------
and its just that
uncaptured quintessence
that leads to 
 pinky's  gothic conjecture
                                         # 2


whereas 
 the latest installment
                    of credit's  real deal 
                                 is more complex 
and thankfully 
 more self preserving 

then thats 
great

                     right?

                           no 

                           because
                you've forgotten 
                      category five 

          the latest neat new system 
pinky ardently assures you
         behaves
 all together differently
 
then the 29 
crisis state
just because of this new flexibility 

and 
policy type
cone heads
when fives trumpet  blast comes
  will find  
trying to  fight the '29  war
all over again 
with all their fabulous 
         up to date ideas.......

  remember the h bomb in independence day ?
  the dust settles
and

"  ough ooooh"

  here
the wonks open up 
  on the crisis
and 
 the exact opposite of what they want happens 

"geez snoop 
  some where back there
we musta left   kansas  "

---------------------------------------


heres my silly

scalar analogy
totally wrong really but..

in water control on a river 
ya 
build higher levees

and sure enough...

you handle 
the ten year flood
waters just fine

go higher still

 twenty year no problem

higher still

shit we toook even that  fifty year flood
 
 but oh no

can't build a levee higher then x
not possible
so if god forbid we get a ....

hope nothin comes along that's ....

then sure enough
comes

a hundred year flood

and......

----------------------------------

the fun of it all

when  
the water lets  go

when the highest possible  levee
suddenly  busts

the water unleashed all at once iz
  way beyond ...


" shit no levees woulda been better then this aaaaaaahh "




but thats just a crude
 one dimensional analogy

 
just why
the cleo maniacs
built
a  multi variable model
to do their  quant sims 

but 
fuck it 

how about 
 them apples
 anyhow

 what say you 
eh  baby?

ha ha ha ha ha ha ha 


-----------------------------
p.s.

shit
don't worry

i'm 
 just kiddin'
and
funnin'
 and 
pretendin'
 
don't worry one small bit 

sleep tight 

hell 
this is only year 75

since the last fiver hit 

we got plenty of time
to figure out
whats comin down 


==========================