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November 20, 2005

more on STALLING the engine of prosperity

 so hey

we can wax wise here

 

  building  and rebuilding 

       our homes ....

 

 a perpetual motion  machine

                          it ain't

---------------------------------------

so  lets get specific

     when will  the house building slump 

                    1) hit

                     and 

                 2)how hard ???

answer

    1) sooner  rather then for the  better 

      and 

   2) harder then  a shaq  slam on saturday nite 



=============================================



=========================================


 

pre read note:

 mortgage credit is the commanding heights here

all could be moved nearly at will

up or down 

and yet

given wall streets need for stealth

       one can only imagine 

         whattheir boy

            gentle  ben has plans/orders 

                             to do to us.......

---------------------------------------

lire this spavened  old lady gray column 

  as it meanders and ruminates :

"THERE'S a growing consensus 

that the housing market is cooling off"

------- 

throwing that lead's

   about like 

crying

" fire in the house 

           fire in the house "

 when only smoldering char  remains  ---------------



 lets be number types  here...



" housing starts fell 

                       5.6 percent 

       in October

 from year-ago levels....

 building permits fell 

                          6.7 percent"

not exactly a rout yet ....

 





----  but notice what a  job bloom 

house sales and building have been ---------------- 



 "from November 2001 to October 2005

 housing and real estate

 accounted for 

 36 percent 

   of private-sector

 payroll job growth"

" 836,000  out of the total

of  2.3 million 

private-sector jobs  created "



---------- try replacing that on the gallop 

and is it a choice sector after all .... ------------



"its  labor intensive

 And unlike  the  manufacturing sector

 the money pouring into 

residential real estate 

and the housing industry

this is  demand for American labor"

 

 ------- and how do we look

history wise ????-------------

 

"Residential investment

 as a share of gross domestic product

 is at the highest level in 50 years," 

--------  50 year high

              wow 

but errr 

  'residential investment' 

     what does  fucking that  exactly  include ????

  and 

         as that may unfold

     should it be expressed as

   a share of 

      or  just compared to 

                         GDP ????

damned if i'm gonna bother to  find out ------------------

       

--------- but here's a number pair 

           we can squeeze hold of ------------------



" real-estate-related industries

 accounted for

 9.7 percent 

of total domestic employment

 in the second quarter

 of 2005

 up from 

9.0 percent 

in the fourth quarter

    of 2001"



-----------  the delta

              .7% 

 out of 130 million jobs 

i make that 

900,000  extra jobs 

ties to the above number eh ???---------------------



"In California, 13.4 percent of jobs 

in the second quarter of 2005 

were housing-related,

 versus 12.3 percent in the fourth quarter of 2001"



------------- the fall will  be 

  that much harder out in lotus land ----------------



forecast :



"Housing is going to go from 

  key contributor 

 to  significant drag on job growth."



AND REMEMBER THIS DOESN'T HAVE TO HAPPEN

ONLY GENTLE BEN WILL MAKE IT SO



                    QED 

SEE YA IN TEMPLE

              ....SUCKERS